The Long-Run Effect of Mexican Immigration on Crime in US Cities: Evidence from Variation in Mexican Fertility Rates
The Long-Run Effect of Mexican Immigration on Crime in US Cities: Evidence from Variation in Mexican Fertility Rates
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墨西哥移民对美国城市犯罪的长期影响：墨西哥生育率变化的证据
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发表时间：
2015
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Aaron Chalfin
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作者：
Aaron Chalfin
使用历史数据的大小特定的墨西哥出生队列和墨西哥各州和美国大都市区之间的地理迁移网络，我构建了一个工具变量，预测十年从墨西哥到美国的移民。这种识别策略背后的直觉是，一旦每个出生队列达到主要移民年龄，墨西哥历史上较大的出生队列就会产生更多的潜在移民。我报告的证据表明，墨西哥移民与财产犯罪的下降和加重攻击的增加有关。现有证据表明，这并不是移民犯罪报告减少的人为因素。
Using historical data on the size of state-specific Mexican birth cohorts and geographic migration networks between Mexican states and US metropolitan areas, I construct an instrumental variable that predicts decadal migration from Mexico to the United States. The intuition behind this identification strategy is that larger historical birth cohorts in Mexico yield more potential migrants once each birth cohort reaches prime migration age. I report evidence that Mexican immigration is associated with a decline in property crimes and an increase in aggravated assaults. The available evidence suggests that this is not an artifact of reduced crime reporting among immigrants.