Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets
Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets
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DOI：
10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
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发表时间：
2024-02
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Edward Hanna;Dániel Topál;J. Box;S. Buzzard;Frazer D. W. Christie;Christine Hvidberg;M. Morlighem
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文献类型：
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作者：
Edward Hanna;Dániel Topál;J. Box;S. Buzzard;Frazer D. W. Christie;Christine Hvidberg;M. Morlighem
南极和格陵兰冰盖的变化发生在不同的时间尺度上，对于海平面上升的预测很重要；然而，未来冰盖质量变化存在很大的不确定性。 在这篇综述中，我们探讨了短期波动和极端冰川事件在多大程度上反映了冰盖的长期演化和对持续气候变化的响应。大气或海洋条件的短期（十年或更短）变化可以引发放大的反馈，从而增加冰盖对气候变化的敏感性。例如，海洋引起和大气引起的融化的变化可能引发冰变薄、冰架后退和/或崩塌、接地线后退以及冰流加速。南极冰盖特别容易因温暖的洋流而加速融化和冰盖崩塌，而气候变化的加剧可能会加剧这种情况。自 2012 年以来，格陵兰岛观测到高融化和低融化异常，凸显了年际气候变化加剧对极端冰川事件和冰盖演化的影响。未能充分考虑这种变化可能会导致对数十年冰量损失的预测出现偏差。因此，未来的研究应致力于改进气候和海洋观测和模型，并开发复杂的冰盖模型，这些模型直接受观测记录约束，可以捕获不同时间尺度的冰动态变化。
The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.