The Association Between Density of Alcohol Establishments and Violent Crime Within Urban Neighborhoods
The Association Between Density of Alcohol Establishments and Violent Crime Within Urban Neighborhoods
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1530-0277.2012.01753.x
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Harwood, Eileen M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Toomey, Traci L.;Erickson, Darin J.;Harwood, Eileen M.
许多研究发现，酒精设施密度较高的地区更有可能有较高的暴力犯罪率，但许多这些研究没有评估设施类型的差异效应或对多种犯罪类别的影响。在这项研究中，我们评估了酒精设施密度是否与4类暴力犯罪相关，以及这些关联的强度是否因暴力犯罪类型和场所而异（例如，酒吧、餐馆）与外部场所（例如，酒类和便利店）。方法数据来自2009年明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯市，并在社区层面进行汇总和分析。在明尼阿波利斯的83个社区中，我们研究了4类暴力犯罪：袭击，强奸，抢劫和总暴力犯罪。我们使用贝叶斯分层推理方法来建模的数据，占空间自相关性和控制相关的邻里人口统计。模型估计总酒精设施密度以及分别为内部设施和外部设施。结果积极的，统计学上显着的协会观察到总酒精设施密度和每一个暴力犯罪的结果。我们估计，3.9%至4.3%的犯罪类别增加将导致20%的社区建立密度增加。现场密度和每个单独的暴力犯罪结果之间的关联也都是积极的和显著的，并且与总设施密度的强度相似。场外密度和犯罪结果之间的关系都是积极的，但不显着的强奸或总的暴力犯罪，和协会的强度弱于那些总的和场内密度。结论本研究的结果，结合早期的研究结果，提供了更多的证据表明，社区领导人应该谨慎增加他们的社区内的酒精设施的密度。
Background Numerous studies have found that areas with higher alcohol establishment density are more likely to have higher violent crime rates, but many of these studies did not assess the differential effects of type of establishments or the effects on multiple categories of crime. In this study, we assess whether alcohol establishment density is associated with 4 categories of violent crime and whether the strength of the associations varies by type of violent crime and by on-premise establishments (e.g., bars, restaurants) versus off-premise establishments (e.g., liquor and convenience stores). Methods Data come from the city of Minneapolis, Minnesota in 2009 and were aggregated and analyzed at the neighborhood level. Across the 83 neighborhoods in Minneapolis, we examined 4 categories of violent crime: assault, rape, robbery, and total violent crime. We used a Bayesian hierarchical inference approach to model the data, accounting for spatial auto-correlation and controlling for relevant neighborhood demographics. Models were estimated for total alcohol establishment density as well as separately for on-premise establishments and off-premise establishments. Results Positive, statistically significant associations were observed for total alcohol establishment density and each of the violent crime outcomes. We estimate that a 3.9 to 4.3% increase across crime categories would result from a 20% increase in neighborhood establishment density. The associations between on-premise density and each of the individual violent crime outcomes were also all positive and significant and similar in strength as for total establishment density. The relationships between off-premise density and the crime outcomes were all positive but not significant for rape or total violent crime, and the strength of the associations was weaker than those for total and on-premise density. Conclusions Results of this study, combined with earlier findings, provide more evidence that community leaders should be cautious about increasing the density of alcohol establishments within their neighborhoods.