History-Dependent Risk Attitude
History-Dependent Risk Attitude
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历史相关的风险态度
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1761417
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Kareen Rozen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
David Dillenberger;Kareen Rozen
我们提出了一个模型的历史依赖的风险态度（障碍），允许的态度的决策者（DM）对风险在每个阶段的T-阶段彩票演变为他的历史的失望和elations在前几个阶段的功能。我们建立了一个等价之间的存在的障碍表示和两个记录的认知偏见。首先，DM的风险态度被先前的经历所强化：他在遭受失望后变得更加厌恶风险，而在兴高采烈后变得不那么厌恶风险。第二，DM显示出首因效应：早期结果对风险态度的影响最大。此外，DM在一个令人失望的结果之后降低了他的风险阈值，在一个令人振奋的结果之后提高了它;这使得在风险之后更有可能感到失望，反之亦然，导致统计上逆转的风险态度。在确定内源性参考点时，“灰色区域”与乐观和悲观有关。(This摘要是从本条目的另一个版本中借用的。）
We propose a model of history-dependent risk attitude (HDRA), allowing the attitude of a decision-maker (DM) towards risk at each stage of a T-stage lottery to evolve as a function of his history of disappointments and elations in prior stages. We establish an equivalence between the existence of an HDRA representation and two documented cognitive biases. First, the DM’s risk attitudes are reinforced by prior experiences: he becomes more risk averse after suffering a disappointment and less risk averse after being elated. Second, the DM displays a primacy effect: early outcomes have the strongest effect on risk attitude. Furthermore, the DM lowers his threshold for elation after a disappointing outcome and raises it after an elating outcome; this makes disappointment more likely after elation and vice-versa, leading to statistically reversing risk attitudes. “Gray areas” in the elation-disappointment assignment are connected to optimism and pessimism in determining endogenous reference points. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Biochem.Biophys.Res.Commun.第 122 卷，第 2 期（1984 年）
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