Computable General Equilibrium Models
Computable General Equilibrium Models
复制标题
可计算的一般均衡模型
DOI：
10.1177/089443939000800404
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发表时间：
1990
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
D. Fullerton
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Fullerton
在实体经济中测试每一项新政策提案是不切实际的，但我们可以使用计算机实验室来模拟其在模型经济中的效果。如果政策变化与现有数据中以前的变化相似，并且如果我们对部分均衡效应感兴趣，则可以使用计量经济学模型来估计其他替代政策情景的其他条件或短期影响。然而，这些模型可能不适用于需要在现有经验范围之外进行外推的政策变化或其他外生冲击。这种变化的例子包括完全取消公司所得税、改变外汇制度、采用全新的税收或关税、石油价格冲击，甚至是长期气候变化的经济影响。即使是温和的政策变化，我们也可能需要考虑到影响整个经济的多重间接影响。可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型是一种可以用来处理这类经济问题的技术。这个术语通常指的是数值的而不是理论的一般均衡模型，这些模型大到足以处理分解的资源分配。这些都是经验模型，通常不使用计量经济学。Ballard, Fullerton, Shoven, and Whalley（1985）阐述了一个完整的例子。有关政策改变的基本策略是：
It is impractical to test each new pohcy proposal on the real economy, but we can use the computer laboratory to simulate its effects in a modeled economy. If the policy change is similar to previous variations within available data, and if we are interested in partial equilibrium effects, an econometric model can be used to estimate the ceteris paribus or short-run impact of alternative policy scenarios. These models may not be appropriate, however, for a policy change or other exogenous shock that requires extrapolation outside the bounds of existing experience. Examples of such changes include a complete elimination of corporate income taxes, a switch in foreign exchange regimes, the introduction of a wholly new tax or tariff, an oil price shock, or even the economic effects of secular changes in climate. Even for a moderate policy change, we may need to account for multiple indirect effects that reverberate throughout the economy. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling is a technique that can be used to deal with these kinds of economic problems. This terminology generally refers to numerical rather than theoretical general equilibrium models that are large enough to deal with disaggregate resource allocations. These are empirical models that most often use no econometrics. A complete example is elaborated in Ballard, Fullerton, Shoven, and Whalley (1985). The basic strategy of the approach for the relevant policy change is: