Hydrologic changes, dam construction, and the shift in dietary protein in the Lower Mekong River Basin
Hydrologic changes, dam construction, and the shift in dietary protein in the Lower Mekong River Basin
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124454
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发表时间：
2020-02-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Pokhrel, Yadu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Burbano, Mateo;Shin, Sanghoon;Pokhrel, Yadu
这项研究将加快大坝建设导致的湄公河下游流域(LMRB)的水文变化与饮食从鱼类转向陆地--动物肉(以下简称肉类)--作为蛋白质的主要来源联系在一起。在最近的过去，LMRB国家(即柬埔寨、老挝、泰国和越南)已经观察到向西化饮食的转变。然而，作为饮食转变原因的水坝建设引起的水文变化，以及从鱼到肉的日益增加的转变对虚拟水的影响都没有得到充分的研究。在这里，我们利用水动力模型和年渔获量数据，推导出渔获量和洪涝面积之间的单变量关系。我们发现，LMRB的人均渔获量与年洪灾发生之间存在很强的相关性。结果表明，在湄公河主干洪峰流量可能减少50%导致洪水发生改变的情况下，洞里萨湖地区的渔获量可能会减少类似8%。然而，峰值流量的同样减少可能会导致较大的LMRB次区域内渔获量的增加，但这种增加将是微乎其微的。接下来，根据肉类的历史生产和消费，我们发现随着时间的推移，人均肉类生产和消费都在增加。此外，对土地利用变化的分析表明，主要由于肉类产量的增加，耕地面积扩大了2%。最后，从虚拟水贸易(VWT)网络我们发现，由于贸易伙伴的显著增加，LMRB的总VWT从1988年到2016年增长了两倍。
This study links the changing hydrology in the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) caused by accelerated dam construction to a dietary shift from fish to land-animal meat (meat hereafter) as a primary source of protein. A shift toward a westernized diet in the LMRB countries (i.e., Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam) has been observed in the recent past. However, neither the hydrological changes from dam construction as a cause for the dietary shift nor the effects of increasing shift from fish to meat on virtual water have been adequately studied. Here, we derive a univariate relationship between fish catch and flooded areas by using a hydrodynamic model and yearly fish catch data. We find a strong correlation between catch per capita and yearly flood occurrence in the LMRB. Results suggest that fish catch in the Tonle Sap Lake region may reduce by similar to 8% under a scenario of altered flood occurrence caused by potential reduction in peak flow in the main stem Mekong by 50%. The same reduction in peak flow could, however, lead to an increase in catch within a larger LMRB subregion but such increase would be marginal. Next, based on the historical production and consumption of meat, we find an increase in meat production and consumption per capita over time. Further, analysis of land use change suggests a 2% cropland expansion mainly due to an increase in meat production. Finally, from the virtual water trade (VWT) network we find that the total VWT of the LMRB tripled from 1988 to 2016 due to a significant rise in trade partners.