On the possibility of predicting flare index and CME velocity using vector magnetograms
On the possibility of predicting flare index and CME velocity using vector magnetograms
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关于使用矢量磁图预测耀斑指数和 CME 速度的可能性
DOI：
10.1007/s11433-019-1489-0
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发表时间：
2020-02
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Wang Jingxiu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen Anqin;Wang Jingxiu
本文选取太阳活动周期24可见太阳半球中最大黑子群面积大于400 μh的106个活动区(AR),考察其耀斑指数(I_(flare))、最大耀斑震级(M_(flare))、最快日冕物质抛射(CME)速度(VCME)与矢量磁场参数的关系, 尝试利用矢量磁图对I_(flare)、M_(flare)和VCME进行预测，发现I_(flare)和M_(flare)与总光球自由磁能密度(E_(free))、陡水平磁梯度磁中性线长度(L_(NL))、强磁剪切面积有很好的相关性。 (A_ψ).I_(flare) 和 M_(flare) 也被发现与 E_(free) 具有最佳相关性。然而，VCME 与这三个磁场参数显示出中等相关性，与 A_ψ 具有最佳相关性。因此，E_(free) 和 A_ψ 似乎是可用于预测 I_(flare) (M_(flare)) 和 因此，提出了多元线性回归拟合更适合预测I_(耀斑)和M_(耀斑)，因为它比用一个磁场参数对I_(耀斑)和M_(耀斑)进行线性拟合获得的预测更强。然而，通过与A_ψ的线性拟合可以更好地获得VCME预测。大多数没有任何CME的AR从未出现过。 产生任何大于 X1.0 的耀斑，同时具有相对较低的 E_(free)、较短的 L_(NL) 和较小的 A_ψ。这表明 AR 中最大的耀斑越大，AR 产生的最快 CME 就越快。
In this paper,106 active regions (ARs) in the visible solar hemisphere in solar cycle 24 whose maximum sunspot groups' areas were larger than 400 μh were selected.The association of their flare index (I_(flare)),largest flare magnitude (M_(flare)),and fastest coronal mass ejection (CME) velocity (VCME) with the vector magnetic field parameters were examined,and attempts were made to predict I_(flare),M_(flare),and VCME using the vector magnetograms.I_(flare) and M_(flare) were found to have a good correlation with the total photospheric free magnetic energy density (E_(free)),the length of the magnetic neutral line with a steep horizontal magnetic gradient (L_(NL)),and the area with strong magnetic shear (A_ψ).I_(flare) and M_(flare) were also found to have a best correlation with E_(free).However,VCME displayed a moderate correlation with these three magnetic field parameters with a best correlation with A_ψ.Thus,E_(free) and A_ψ appear to be the best parameters that can be used to predict I_(flare) (M_(flare)) and VCME,respectively.Hence,the multiple linear regression fit is proposed more suitable to predict I_(flare) and M_(flare) because of the stronger forecasts obtained than those by the linear fit with one magnetic field parameter for I_(flare) and M_(flare).However,the VCME forecasts are better obtained through the linear fit with A_ψ.The majority of the ARs without any CMEs never produced any flare larger than X1.0 while having a relatively lower E_(free),shorter L_(NL),and smaller A_ψ.This suggests that the larger the largest flare in an AR is,the faster the fastest CME produced by the AR will be.
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DOI：
10.3847/0004-637x/826/2/119
发表时间：
2016-07
期刊：
The Astrophysical Journal
影响因子：
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作者：
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发表时间：
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期刊：
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影响因子：
4.8
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DOI：
10.1051/0004-6361/201118037
发表时间：
2012-05
期刊：
Astronomy & Astrophysics
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1088/2041-8205/745/2/l17
发表时间：
2011-12
期刊：
The Astrophysical Journal Letters
影响因子：
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