Integrated assessment of global climate, air pollution, and dietary, malnutrition and obesity health impacts of food production and consumption between 2014 and 2018
Integrated assessment of global climate, air pollution, and dietary, malnutrition and obesity health impacts of food production and consumption between 2014 and 2018
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DOI：
10.1088/2515-7620/ac0af9
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Christopher S. Malley;W. K. Hicks;Johan C I Kulyenstierna;E. Michalopoulou;Amy Molotoks;J. Slater;C. Heaps;Silvia Ulloa;Jason Veysey;D. Shindell;D. Henze;O. Nawaz;S. Anenberg;B. Mantlana;T. Robinson
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作者：
Christopher S. Malley;W. K. Hicks;Johan C I Kulyenstierna;E. Michalopoulou;Amy Molotoks;J. Slater;C. Heaps;Silvia Ulloa;Jason Veysey;D. Shindell;D. Henze;O. Nawaz;S. Anenberg;B. Mantlana;T. Robinson
农业约占全球温室气体排放量的10%，同时通过食品消费和农业空气污染物排放对人类健康产生影响。这些影响通常被单独量化，并且缺乏促进综合评估的建模工具。这项工作提出了一个新的模式，综合评估农业系统对（一）人类健康间接通过饮食，肥胖和营养不良的健康风险从食品消费，（二）人类健康直接通过暴露于空气污染物的农业排放，（三）温室气体排放。在该模型中，国家粮食需求是代表满足这一需求的畜牧业和作物生产系统的起点。该模型适用于2014-2018年，以评估与先前独立量化这些变量的研究相比，该综合建模框架产生的温室气体排放和健康负担结果的稳健性。2018年全球甲烷和一氧化二氮排放量估计分别为1.29亿吨和440万吨，与之前的估计一致。据估计，农业系统也排放了4400万吨氨。据估计，410万死亡与饮食健康风险有关，600万与超重/肥胖有关，73万婴儿死于营养不良，与先前的研究一致。据估计，农业空气污染物排放与细颗粒物（PM2.5）暴露导致的53.7万人过早死亡以及甲烷诱导的地面臭氧导致的18.4万人过早死亡有关。这些健康影响为设计减缓气候变化和改善人类健康的综合战略提供了大量机会，并强调了扩大农业生产可能因排放增加而产生的权衡。这里提出的模型提供了不同的农业战略，以满足粮食需求的影响，同时尽量减少人类健康和气候变化的影响的一致性评估。
Agriculture accounts for approximately 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions and is simultaneously associated with impacts on human health through food consumption, and agricultural air pollutant emissions. These impacts are often quantified separately, and there is a lack of modelling tools to facilitate integrated assessments. This work presents a new model that integrates assessment of agricultural systems on (i) human health indirectly through dietary, obesity and malnutrition health risks from food consumption, (ii) human health directly through exposure to air pollutants from agricultural emissions, and (iii) greenhouse gas emissions. In the model, national food demand is the starting point from which the livestock and crop production systems that meet this are represented. The model is applied for 2014–2018 to assess the robustness of the GHG emissions and health burden results that this integrated modelling framework produces compared to previous studies that have quantified these variables independently. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions globally in 2018 were estimated to be 129 and 4.4 million tonnes, respectively, consistent with previous estimates. Agricultural systems were also estimated to emit 44 million tonnes of ammonia. An estimated 4.1 million deaths were associated with dietary health risks, 6.0 million with overweight/obesity, and 730 thousand infant deaths from malnutrition, consistent with previous studies. Agricultural air pollutant emissions were estimated to be associated with 537 thousand premature deaths attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure, and 184 thousand premature deaths from methane-induced ground-level ozone. These health impacts provide substantial opportunities to design integrated strategies that mitigate climate change, and improve human health, and also highlight possible trade-offs that the expansion of agricultural production could have due to increased emissions. The model presented here provides for the consistent evaluation of the implications of different agricultural strategies to meet food demand while minimising human health and climate change impacts.