European countries with delayed childbearing are not those with lower fertility
European countries with delayed childbearing are not those with lower fertility
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DOI：
10.1186/s41118-020-00108-0
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发表时间：
2021-01-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Toulemon, Laurent
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Beaujouan, Eva;Toulemon, Laurent
在个人层面上，初次生育年龄与子女总数之间存在着很强的负相关关系。然而，在国家一级，在年轻时降低生育率的因素与在老年时刺激生育率的因素之间可能没有关系。因此，在各国，青年生育率下降的幅度可能与老年生育率增加的幅度或总生育率下降的幅度无关。我们研究了女性的生育率和她们的生育年龄，特别关注了过去40年来欧洲各国女性生育力的演变。比较这些国家，30岁以后出生率的增长与年轻年龄组的下降相对独立，我们发现第一胎的延迟与总生育率的下降之间没有正相关关系。相反，国家一级显然存在相反的关系，因为拖延时间越长，总生育率下降的幅度越小。背景效应在很大程度上支配着个体的制约，并在晚育的发生中发挥着重要作用。
At the individual level, a very strong negative relationship is observed between age at first birth and total number of children. However, at the country level, it is possible that no relationship exists between factors that reduce fertility at younger ages and stimulate it at older ages. Hence, across countries, the size of the decline in youth fertility is potentially unrelated to the size of the increase in fertility at older ages or the decline in total fertility. We study the fertility of women and their age at childbirth, with particular attention to their evolution over the last 40 years in countries across Europe. Comparing these countries, the increase in births after age 30 has occurred relatively independently of the decline at younger ages according to both period and cohort, and we find no positive relationship between the delay of first birth and decline in total fertility. On the contrary, an inverse relationship evidently exists at the country level, as longer delays generally correspond to smaller declines in total fertility. Context effects largely dominate individual constraints and play an important role in the occurrence of later births.