Assessment of the SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number, R0, based on the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy
Assessment of the SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number, R0, based on the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy
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DOI：
10.1016/j.bsheal.2020.03.004
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Coniglio, Angela
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D'Arienzo, Marco;Coniglio, Angela
截至3月12日，意大利是欧洲以及中国以外SARS-CoV-2病例最多的国家。这些感染最初仅限于北方意大利，最终蔓延到所有其他地区。在控制新出现的传染病暴发时，必须了解关键的流行病学参数，如基本繁殖数R 0，即在暴发开始时一个受感染者在其整个传染期内造成的二次感染的平均数。以前的工作仅限于对武汉地区或中国大陆的R 0分析数据进行评估。在本研究中，通过分析意大利暴发早期的数据，评估了SARS-CoV-2的R 0值。特别是，在9个城市（感染人数最多的城市）分析了SARS-CoV-2的传播情况，将成熟的SIR模型拟合到2020年2月25日至3月12日期间的可用数据。这项研究的结果表明，与意大利爆发相关的R 0值可能在2.43至3.10之间，证实了先前文献中报告SARS-CoV-2相似R 0值的证据。(c)2020中华医学会出版社。由爱思唯尔公司出版。这是一篇开放获取的文章，使用CC BY许可证（http：//creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/）。
As of March 12th Italy has the largest number of SARS-CoV-2 cases in Europe as well as outside China. The infections, first limited in Northern Italy, have eventually spread to all other regions. When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number R0, i.e. the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual during his/her entire infectious period at the start of an outbreak. Previous work has been limited to the assessment of R0 analyzing data from the Wuhan region or Mainland China. In the present study the R0 value for SARS-CoV-2 was assessed analyzing data de-rived from the early phase of the outbreak in Italy. In particular, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 was analyzed in 9 cities (those with the largest number of infections) fitting the well-established SIR-model to available data in the interval be-tween February 25-March 12, 2020. The findings of this study suggest that R0 values associated with the Italian out-break may range from 2.43 to 3.10, confirming previous evidence in the literature reporting similar R0 values for SARS-CoV-2.(c) 2020 Chinese Medical Association Publishing House. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).