Income inequality and the distributional effects of elevated carbon dioxide on dietary nutrient deficiency
Income inequality and the distributional effects of elevated carbon dioxide on dietary nutrient deficiency
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121606
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发表时间：
2020-08
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Wenchao Wu;Kiyoshi Takahashi;Lin Zhou;Shaosheng Jin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wenchao Wu;Kiyoshi Takahashi;Lin Zhou;Shaosheng Jin
除非采取措施减缓二氧化碳浓度的增加，否则预计2050年左右全球大气层二氧化碳浓度的年平均值将达到百万分之550。实地试验表明，在二氧化碳浓度升高的情况下，粮食作物的营养成分会大幅减少，这将导致除预期作物产量减少之外的其他营养后果。全球模拟研究表明，这种影响将导致营养素缺乏症的流行率显著增加。利用中国成年人个人水平的膳食调查数据，对550 ppm二氧化碳情景下的营养后果进行了综合分析，特别关注了营养退化对不同收入群体的分布影响。我们的研究结果表明，中国成年人摄入的蛋白质、铁和锌将减少2.17-4.75%，因此，营养素缺乏症的患病率将增加1.35- 4.42%。我们还发现，收入组之间的营养素损失率和缺乏风险存在显着差异：最低收入组的营养素损失率是最高收入组的1.37-1.54倍。因此，在550 ppm二氧化碳情景下，最低收入群体将经历更大幅度的营养素缺乏风险增加。此外，我们发现，在低收入群体中，所有三种营养素的摄入量都会同时减少，这将使这一人群更容易受到营养健康风险的影响。我们的研究揭示了大气中二氧化碳浓度升高的影响的显著不平等。必须探索明确针对受影响人口的营养干预政策，以在大气二氧化碳浓度升高的情况下实现社会平等。
The annual globally averaged atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to reach 550 ppm around 2050 unless measures are taken to mitigate its increase. Field experiments suggest that the nutrient contents of food crops are decreased substantially under elevated carbon dioxide conditions, which will lead to additional nutritional consequences on top of those related to the expected reductions of crop yield. Global modeling studies have suggested that such impacts would lead to a marked increase in the prevalence of nutrient deficiency. By using individual-level dietary survey data for Chinese adults, we conducted a comprehensive analysis on the nutritional consequence under the 550-ppm carbon dioxide scenario, with paying special attention to the distributional impact of nutrition degradation on different income groups. Our results suggest that the Chinese adult population would ingest around 2.17–4.75% less protein, iron, and zinc, and consequently, the prevalence of nutrient deficiency would increase by 1.35–4.42%. We also found a significant disparity in the nutrient loss rate and risk of deficiency among income groups: nutrient loss rates for the lowest-income group were 1.37–1.54 times greater than those for the highest-income group. Thus, the lowest-income group would experience a more considerable increase of nutrient deficiency risk under the 550-ppm carbon dioxide scenario. Moreover, we found that in the lower-income group nutrient intake for all three nutrients would be reduced simultaneously, which would leave this population more vulnerable to nutritional health risks. Our study revealed a marked inequality in the impact of the elevation of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Nutrition intervention policies explicitly targeting affected populations must be explored to achieve social equality under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.