Spatial modelling of the potential temperature-dependent transmission of vector-associated diseases in the face of climate change: main results and recommendations from a pilot study in Lower Saxony (Germany)
Spatial modelling of the potential temperature-dependent transmission of vector-associated diseases in the face of climate change: main results and recommendations from a pilot study in Lower Saxony (Germany)
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DOI：
10.1007/s00436-008-1051-z
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发表时间：
2008-12-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Schmidt, Gunther
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schroeder, Winfried;Schmidt, Gunther
持续的气候变化将改变疟疾或蓝舌病等病媒传播疾病的地理分布、季节性传播门和传播强度。这些疾病现在发生在高纬度或高海拔地区，环境温度和降雨量的进一步上升将延长蚊子传播病原体的季节。由媒介传播的寄生虫也受益于温度的升高，因为它们的繁殖和发育也会加速。因此，由于正在进行的和预测的气候变化，审查对季节性传输门的潜在影响似乎是谨慎的。下萨克森（德国西北部）是前疟疾地区，在20世纪50年代初疟疾最终灭绝之前，沿海地区的萎缩按蚊和间日疟沿着发病率最高。然而，传播疟疾病原体的按蚊至今仍在萨克森州存在。这与气候变化相关的影响一起，使人们有理由调查如果疟疾病原体再次引入萨克森，是否会发生新的本土传播。因此，潜在的空间和时间结构的温度驱动的疟疾传播映射使用的基本繁殖率（R-0）和测量和预测的空气温度（1947 - 1960年，1961 - 1990年，1985 - 2004年，2020年，2060年，2100年，每个最好的情况和最坏的情况下）。本文着重于总结这种风险建模方法的结果和得出的结论。这些建议强调必须将病媒监测作为流行病监测的关键要素之一与环境监测联系起来。
The sustained climate change is going to modify the geographic distribution, the seasonal transmission gate and the intensity of the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria or the bluetongue disease. These diseases occur nowadays at higher latitudes or altitudes, A further rise in ambient temperature and rainfall will extend the duration of the season in which mosquito vectors are transmitting pathogens. The parasites transmitted by the vectors also benefit from increasing temperatures, as both their reproduction and development are then accelerated, too. Thus, it seemed prudent to examine potential effects on the seasonal transmission gate due to the ongoing and predicted climate changes. Lower Saxony (northwest Germany) is a former malaria region with highest incidences of Anopheles atroparvus and tertian malaria along the coastal zones before malaria had finally become extinct in the early 1950s. Nevertheless, the Anopheles mosquitoes which transmit the malaria pathogens have still been present in Lower Saxony up to now. This together with the climate change-related implications gave reason to investigate whether a new autochthonous transmission could take place if the malaria pathogen is introduced again in Lower Saxony. Thus, the potential spatial and temporal structure of temperature-driven malaria transmissions was mapped using the basic reproduction rate (R-0) and measured and predicted air temperatures (19471960, 1961 1990, 1985 2004, 2020, 2060, 2100, each best case and worst case scenario). This paper focuses on both the summarizing of the results from this risk modelling approach and on the conclusions to be drawn. The recommendations highlight the need to link vector monitoring as one of the key elements of an epidemiological monitoring with the environmental monitoring.