Predicting groundwater recharge for varying land cover and climate conditions – a global meta-study
Predicting groundwater recharge for varying land cover and climate conditions – a global meta-study
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预测不同土地覆盖和气候条件下的地下水补给——一项全球元研究
DOI：
10.5194/hess-22-2689-2018
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
M. Saft
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Mohan;A. Western;Yongping Wei;M. Saft
抽象。地下水补给量是决定地下水补给量的重要因素之一，
地下水开发潜力。尽管充电起到了
在控制地下水系统动态方面发挥着关键作用，但仍存在许多不确定性
地下水补给与地下水治理的关系
大规模的因素。因此，本研究旨在确定最
地下水补给的影响因素，并制定了一个经验
在全球范围内估计扩散降雨补给的模型。充值
世界各地文献中报告的估计数
(715网站），并用于建模和测试工作。
与传统的水平衡补给估计不同，这项研究使用了
多模型推理方法和信息理论来解释
地下水补给量与影响因素的关系，并预测
地下水补给，分辨率为0.5 μ m。结果表明
气象因素（降水量和潜在蒸散量）和
植被因子（土地利用和土地覆盖）的预测能力最强
充电。根据该模型，长期全球平均每年
补给量（1981-2014）为134 mm/年，预测误差范围为
97.2%的病例为-8至10毫米/年。补给量估计
在这项研究中提出的是独特的，更可靠的比现有的全球
由于进行了广泛的验证，
使用从文献中整理的独立局部估计，
粮食及农业组织（粮农组织）的国家统计数据。在一个由人类发展增加驱动的缺水的未来，
这项研究将有助于对地下水潜力做出明智的决定
在大规模上。
Abstract. Groundwater recharge is one of the important factors determining the
groundwater development potential of an area. Even though recharge plays a
key role in controlling groundwater system dynamics, much uncertainty remains
regarding the relationships between groundwater recharge and its governing
factors at a large scale. Therefore, this study aims to identify the most
influential factors of groundwater recharge, and to develop an empirical
model to estimate diffuse rainfall recharge at a global scale. Recharge
estimates reported in the literature from various parts of the world
(715 sites) were compiled and used in model building and testing exercises.
Unlike conventional recharge estimates from water balance, this study used a
multimodel inference approach and information theory to explain the
relationship between groundwater recharge and influential factors, and to predict
groundwater recharge at 0.5 ∘ resolution. The results show that
meteorological factors (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) and
vegetation factors (land use and land cover) had the most predictive power
for recharge. According to the model, long-term global average annual
recharge (1981–2014) was 134 mm yr −1 with a prediction error ranging
from − 8 to 10 mm yr −1 for 97.2 % of cases. The recharge estimates
presented in this study are unique and more reliable than the existing global
groundwater recharge estimates because of the extensive validation carried
out using both independent local estimates collated from the literature and
national statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). In a water-scarce future driven by increased anthropogenic development, the results from
this study will aid in making informed decisions about groundwater potential
at a large scale.