Elite Influence? Religion and the Electoral Success of the Nazis
Elite Influence? Religion and the Electoral Success of the Nazis
复制标题
精英影响力？
DOI：
10.1111/ajps.12328
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
P. Tillmann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jörg L. Spenkuch;P. Tillmann
在魏玛德国，天主教会强烈警告普通教区居民极端主义政党的危险。我们确定选区的宗教构成是纳粹得票率的关键经验预测因素——使任何其他人口或社会经济变量的解释力相形见绌。即使在仔细考虑观察到的差异之后，天主教徒投票给纳粹党的可能性也远低于新教徒。有证据表明，这种差异在很大程度上是由于天主教会及其显贵的影响。与此同时，我们表明，试图使天主教徒免受激进左翼的影响未能取得预期的结果。为了解释教会对投票箱的影响中令人费解的不对称性，我们开发了一个简单的精英在选举政治中的影响的理论框架。
In Weimar Germany, the Catholic Church vehemently warned ordinary parishioners about the dangers of extremist parties. We establish that constituencies' religious composition is a key empirical predictor of Nazi vote shares—dwarfing the explanatory power of any other demographic or socioeconomic variable. Even after carefully accounting for observational differences, Catholics were far less likely to vote for the NSDAP than their Protestant counterparts. The evidence suggests that this disparity was, in large part, due to the sway of the Catholic Church and its dignitaries. At the same time, we show that attempts to immunize Catholics against the radical left failed to achieve the desired result. To explain the puzzling asymmetry in the Church's influence at the ballot box, we develop a simple theoretical framework of elite influence in electoral politics.