Population land use and the environment in developing countries: what can we learn from cross-national data?
Population land use and the environment in developing countries: what can we learn from cross-national data?
复制标题
发展中国家的人口土地利用和环境：我们可以从跨国数据中学到什么？
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
1993
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Geores
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bilsborrow Re;M. Geores
环境退化是20世纪90年代的关键词。对人口变化影响土地利用模式的方式的审查是推进有限的环境问题知识基础的初步尝试。使用了跨国家和世界区域数据来说明发展中国家农村地区土地利用与环境变化之间的联系。人口统计数据的质量最好，土地使用数据次之，环境数据较差；即使是人口统计数据的质量也因国家而异。土地使用数据可能是根据有限的农业普查确定日期的。荒漠化和土壤侵蚀的数字不存在，毁林数字因来源不同而不同。人口数据包括20世纪60年代至80年代的农村人口增长和人口密度。土地利用变量包括1965年和1985年用于农业用途的土地总面积的中位数变化、1987年人均国民生产总值和1975-77年和1985-87年(农业集约化)每公顷农田平均使用的化肥公斤。世界资源研究所的数据被用来计算封闭树冠森林和开阔树冠森林的年平均损失。其他变量包括土地和劳动生产率以及未绘制的变量：土地分配和收入平等的基尼系数、土地平等的人口支持能力、农药和拖拉机的使用、粮食产量和总生育率。除了数据质量差和数据缺失之外，还存在其他分析问题，以确定如何衡量某些概念，以及哪些变量的哪些衡量标准应与其他变量的哪些衡量标准相比较。查明的缺点是无法获得农村人口密度数据的变化，缺乏土地质量或土地是否正在使用或休耕的说明，缺乏过度使用化肥或化肥类型的说明，缺乏灌溉损失的原因数据，以及环境数据不充分和缺失。例如，简单相关的结果表明，人口增长与土地利用之间存在正相关关系，但这种关系弱于预期，而且是有条件的。如果将巴西包括在内，农村人口增长与森林损失之间存在微弱的负相关关系，但如果将巴西和报告零森林损失的国家排除在外，这种负相关关系是积极的和微不足道的。
Environmental degradation is the key word for the 1990s. This review of the ways in which population change can influence land use patterns was an initial attempt to advance the limited knowledge base on environmental issues. Cross country and world regional data were used to exemplify the linkages between land use and environmental change for rural areas of developing countries. Data quality was best for demographic measures less so for land use data and much weaker for environmental data; quality even for demographic data still varied by country. Land use data may be dated and based on limited agricultural census. Desertification and soil erosion figures were non existent and deforestation figures were variable by source. Population data included rural population growth from the 1960s to the 1980s and population density. Land use variables included total land area devoted to agricultural uses in 1965 and 1985 median changes land per agricultural worker the 1987 per capital Gross National Product and the average kilograms of fertilizer used per hectare of cropland for 1975-77 and 1985-87 (agricultural intensification). World Resources Institute data were used for the average annual loss of closed canopy and open canopy forests. Other variables included land and labor productivity and ungraphed variables: the Gini coefficients for land distribution and income equality the population-supporting capacity of land equality pesticide and tractor usage food production and total fertility rates. Analytical problems other than poor data quality and missing data also exist for determining how to measure some concepts and what measures of what variables should be compared with what measures of other variables. Shortcomings were identified as unavailability of the change in rural population density data lack of specification of quality of land or whether land is in use or fallow lack of specification of excessive fertilizer use or type of fertilizer lack of data on losses in irrigation by cause and inadequate and missing environmental data. Results of simple correlations for example indicated a positive relationship between population growth and land use but it was weaker than expected and conditional. If Brazil is included there is weak inverse correlation between rural population growth and loss of forests but it is positive and insignificant if Brazil and countries reporting zero closed forest loss are excluded.