The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma continues to rise: analysis of period and birth cohort effects on recent trends
The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma continues to rise: analysis of period and birth cohort effects on recent trends
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DOI：
10.1093/annonc/mds181
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发表时间：
2012-12-01
影响因子：
50.5
通讯作者：
Whiteman, D. C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thrift, A. P.;Whiteman, D. C.
在过去的四十年中，食管腺癌（EAC）的发病率在西方人群中显着增加。最近的报告表明，增长率已经放缓或趋于平稳。我们使用澳大利亚、美国和瑞典癌症登记处的数据，使用联合点分析和年龄-时期-队列模型研究了1984年至2008年食管和贲门肿瘤的发病趋势。在澳大利亚和美国，EAC发病率继续经历统计学显著的年度增长，尽管增长速度已经放缓。在男性中，1994年至2008年，澳大利亚的发病率每年增加2.2% [95%置信区间（CI）1.5%至2.9%]，1998年至2008年，美国的发病率每年增加1.5%（95% CI 0.2%至2.8%）。2001年至2008年，瑞典男性EAC发病率保持不变（P = 0.52）。1984年至2008年，女性EAC发病率呈显著线性增长。在澳大利亚和美国，两个时期的队列模型表明，时期和出生队列对EAC发病率有很强的影响，在瑞典也有很强的时期影响。持续增加，甚至在最近的出生队列中，表明EAC发病率将在未来几十年继续上升。
During the past four decades, the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased markedly in Western populations. Recent reports have suggested that the rate of increase has slowed or plateaued.Using data from cancer registries in Australia, the United States and Sweden, we examined incidence trends for esophageal and gastric cardia tumors between 1984 and 2008 using joinpoint analyses and age-period-cohort models.EAC incidence continues to undergo statistically significant annual increases in Australia and the United States, although the rate of increase has slowed. Among men, incidence increased annually by 2.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5% to 2.9%] between 1994 and 2008 in Australia and 1.5% (95% CI 0.2% to 2.8%) between 1998 and 2008 in the United States. EAC incidence among men remained unchanged in Sweden between 2001 and 2008 (P = 0.52). EAC incidence among women showed significant linear increases between 1984 and 2008. Age-period-cohort models suggested strong effects for both period and birth cohort on EAC incidence in Australia and the United States, and a strong period effect for Sweden.EAC incidence continues to increase in Australia and the United States. The continued increases, even among more recent birth cohorts, suggest that EAC incidence will continue to rise during coming decades.