Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.
Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0141218
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Maclean IM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mosedale JR;Wilson RJ;Maclean IM
在英国和许多其他凉爽气候地区种植葡萄预计将受益于未来气候情景下预测的较高生长季节温度。然而，气候变化对作物生长关键阶段不利天气条件或事件风险的影响并不总是通过季节性或年度气候的综合措施或通过假定气候变异性在未来情景下保持不变的降尺度技术来反映。利用英格兰西南部未来气候情景的高分辨率预测和葡萄藤物候模型，我们探讨了在未来气候条件下，凉爽气候葡萄园收成的风险如何变化。结果表明，在所有未来气候情景下，开花期间不利条件的风险都在下降。相比之下，在许多未来气候预测中，由于萌芽时间的提前，晚春霜冻的风险增加。然而，霜冻风险的估计是高度敏感的物候模型的选择，未来霜冻暴露下降时，萌芽计算模型，包括冬季寒冷的要求打破休眠。缺乏强大的物候模型是未来气候变化对历史边缘气候地区冷凉气候葡萄栽培发展影响的不确定性的主要来源。
The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.