Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone landfall in the Philippines from 1902 to 2005
Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone landfall in the Philippines from 1902 to 2005
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DOI：
10.1029/2009gl038108
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发表时间：
2009-06
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
H. Kubota;J. Chan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Kubota;J. Chan
菲律宾热带气旋登陆数量数据集 (TLP) 是根据菲律宾气象局月报和联合预警台风中心 1902 年至 2005 年期间最佳跟踪数据的历史观测记录创建的。TLP 的年代际变化与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动 (ENSO) 和太平洋年代际涛动 (PDO) 的不同阶段有关。每年的TLP在1939年之前有大约32年的明显波动，1945年之后有大约10-22年的波动。没有发现长期趋势。在低PDO阶段，厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）年TLP显着减少（增加）。然而，在高 PDO 阶段，不同 ENSO 阶段之间的年度 TLP 差异变得不清楚。这些结果表明，与 ENSO 和 PDO 相位相关的自然变率似乎在 TLP 的年代际变率中占主导地位。
A dataset of tropical cyclone landfall numbers in the Philippines (TLP) is created from a combination of historical observation records of the Monthly Bulletins of Philippine Weather Bureau and Joint Warning Typhoon Center best‐track data for the period of 1902 to 2005. Interdecadal variability of TLP is found to be related to different phases of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The annual TLP has an apparent oscillation of about 32 years before 1939 and an oscillation of about 10–22 years after 1945. No long‐term trend is found. During the low PDO phase, the annual TLP decreases (increases) significantly in El Niño (La Niña) years. During high PDO phase, however, the difference in annual TLP between different ENSO phases becomes unclear. These results suggest that natural variability related to ENSO and PDO phases appears to prevail in the interdecadal variability of TLP.