Climate change will amplify the inequitable exposure to compound heatwave and ozone pollution
Climate change will amplify the inequitable exposure to compound heatwave and ozone pollution
复制标题
气候变化将扩大复合热浪和臭氧污染的不公平影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.oneear.2022.05.007
复制
发表时间：
2022-06-17
期刊：
影响因子：
16.2
通讯作者：
Li, Tiantian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ban, Jie;Lu, Kailai;Li, Tiantian
在气候变化的影响下，与热浪和臭氧污染有关的健康风险预计将大幅上升。尽管文献已经分别考虑了热浪和臭氧污染的未来健康风险，但复合效应仍未被探索，这可能会损害风险预防计划。在这里，使用耦合模型相互比较项目第6阶段（CMIP 6）的模型和四个共享的社会经济途径（SSP）情景，我们探索了全球时空趋势和复合事件日和人口暴露人日的国家差异。我们发现，与1995-2014年的基线相比，到2071-2090年，在SSP 3 -7.0的高排放情景下，预计每年平均增加34.6个复合事件日，平均人口暴露量为9350万人日。此外，与高收入国家相比，低收入国家面临的风险要高得多。这些预测有助于制定有针对性的减缓和适应计划。
Health risks associated with heatwaves and ozone pollution are projected to rise significantly under the effects of climate change. Although the literature has considered the future health risks of heatwaves and ozone pollution separately, the compound effects remain unexplored, and this could potentially impair risk-prevention plans. Here, using a model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and four shared socioeconomic pathway (SSPs) scenarios, we explore the global tempo-spatial trend and country disparity of compound-event days and population-exposure person-days. We find that compared with the baseline of 1995-2014, by 2071-2090 under the high-emission scenario of SSP3-7.0, an increased annual mean of 34.6 compound-event days and mean population-exposure of 93.5 million person-days is expected. Furthermore, lower-income countries are facing dramatically higher exposure compared with higher-income countries. These projections could contribute to developing targeted mitigation and adaptation plans.