Probabilistic choice set formation incorporating activity spaces into the context of mode and destination choice modelling
Probabilistic choice set formation incorporating activity spaces into the context of mode and destination choice modelling
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将活动空间纳入模式和目的地选择建模背景中的概率选择集形成
DOI：
10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2023.103567
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Tsoleridis P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tsoleridis P
从政策的角度来看，了解个人在空间选择过程中面临的限制是重要的。然而，在模型开发的选择集生成过程中，这种约束经常被忽视。为了解决这一差距，本研究基于Manski的框架提出了一种概率选择集形成方法，假设个体的实际选择集是潜在的(未被观察到的)。尽管具有异质选择集的潜在类模型以前被用于模式和路线选择的上下文中，但由于固有的大的选择集使得问题在计算上很难处理，它们在空间选择的上下文中的应用受到了阻碍。为了解决这个问题，我们建议通过利用地理派生的活动空间概念来描述每个人一系列潜在的选择集，从而在计算上简化这个问题，从而帮助我们捕捉到空间意识和时空限制这两个问题。为了解释真实选择集的潜在性质，我们提出了一个潜在类选择模型(LCCM)框架，将个体概率地分配到不同的结果选择集，每个类具有不同的选择集和不同的参数集。因此，LCCM能够同时捕捉选择集和敏感度中的异质性。所提出的LCCM框架在通过GPS智能手机应用程序捕获的联合模式和购物目的地选择上进行了经验测试。它与基于全局选择集估计的基本MNL模型、仅捕捉敏感度异质性的LCCM和具有潜在考虑选择集的LCCM进行了比较，类似于所提出的模型，但具有跨类的通用参数。我们建议的规范能够超越所有其他模型，同时也提供了对影响个人在空间上的位置选择受到限制的因素的洞察，暗示了空间认知的情况、家庭和工作场所地理的重要性以及个人的社会经济地位。这些见解对于开发更符合行为实际的模型很重要，规划者和政策制定者可以利用这些模型来制定更有效的措施，更好地与潜在人口相关。此外，该分析还提供了对支付意愿措施和需求弹性中的潜在考虑集进行核算时可能出现的差异的见解，这可能对政策措施的有效性产生重大影响。
Understanding the constraints that individuals face during their spatial choices is important from a policy perspective. Such constraints, however, are often overlooked in the choice set generation process during model development. In order to address that gap, the current study proposes a probabilistic choice set formation based on Manski's framework assuming that the actual choice set of an individual is latent (unobserved). Though latent class models with heterogeneous choice sets have been used previously in the context of mode and route choice, their application in the context of spatial choices have been hindered due to the inherently large choice sets making the problem computationally intractable. To address this issue, we propose to computationally simplify the problem by utilising the geography-derived notions of Activity Spaces to delineate a range of potential choice sets per individual helping us to capture both issues of spatial awareness and time-space constraints. In order to account for the latent nature of the true choice set, we propose a Latent Class Choice Modelling (LCCM) framework to allocate the individuals probabilistically into the different resulting choice sets, with each class having a different choice set and a different set of parameters. Thus the LCCM is able to capture heterogeneity in the choice sets and in the sensitivities, at the same time. The proposed LCCM framework is empirically tested on joint mode and shopping destination choices captured through a GPS smartphone application. It is compared to a base MNL model estimated on the global choice set, an LCCM capturing heterogeneity only in the sensitivities and a LCCM with latent consideration choice sets, similarly to the proposed model, but with generic parameters across classes. Our proposed specification is able to outperform all of the remaining models, while also providing insights on the factors affecting individuals to be constrained in their location choices across space hinting to cases of spatial cognition, the importance of the home and workplace geography and the individual's socioeconomic status. Such insights can be important for developing more behaviourally realistic models that can be used by planners and policy makers to formulate more effective measures that better relate to the underlying population. Furthermore, the analysis provides insights into the discrepancies that can emerge by accounting for latent consideration sets in willingness-to-pay measures and demand elasticities, which could have significant implications in the effectiveness of policy measures.
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影响因子：
1.4
作者：
R. S. Yuill
通讯作者：
R. S. Yuill
DOI：
10.1016/j.trb.2017.06.016
发表时间：
2017-09
期刊：
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Calastri;S. Hess;C. Choudhury;A. Daly;L. Gabrielli
通讯作者：
C. Calastri;S. Hess;C. Choudhury;A. Daly;L. Gabrielli
DOI：
10.3328/tl.2009.01.03.181-196
发表时间：
2009-07
期刊：
Transportation Letters
影响因子：
--
作者：
F. Pagliara;H. Timmermans
通讯作者：
F. Pagliara;H. Timmermans
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1986
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
J. Swait;M. Ben
通讯作者：
M. Ben
论人类活动空间的时间变化
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
G. Srivastava;S. Schönfelder
通讯作者：
S. Schönfelder