Comparing Associations of State Reopening Strategies with COVID-19 Burden.
Comparing Associations of State Reopening Strategies with COVID-19 Burden.
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DOI：
10.1007/s11606-020-06277-0
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发表时间：
2020-12
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
McClellan MB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kaufman BG;Whitaker R;Mahendraratnam N;Smith VA;McClellan MB
截至2020年8月，新型冠状病毒病2019 （COVID-19）感染了500多万美国居民，导致18万多人死亡。为了减轻传播，大多数州在3月份下令安置，重新开放的策略各不相同。与两组州重新开放前的趋势相比，估计重新开放后的超额COVID-19病例和死亡人数：(1)有循证重新开放战略的州，定义为在实施全州口罩强制令后重新开放室内餐厅；(2)在实施全州口罩强制令之前重新开放室内餐厅。中断时间序列准实验研究设计应用于可公开获得的二手数据。美国50个州和哥伦比亚特区。在全州范围内实施口罩禁令之前或之后重新开放室内餐厅。结果包括每个州的每日累积COVID-19病例和死亡人数。平均而言，在不戴口罩重新开放的州，每10万居民的超额病例数是8周后戴口罩重新开放的州的10倍（643.1例）；95%置信区间(CI) = 406.9、879.2和62.9例；CI分别= 12.6,113.1)。如果各州在重新开放前实施口罩规定，6周后的超额病例可能会从576371例减少到63062例，减少90%，超额死亡人数可能会从22851例减少到4858例，减少80%。在13个州，在重新开放之前实施了口罩规定，在6周内避免了5万多人死亡。使用口罩等其他缓解措施抵消了因重新开业而导致的COVID-19病例和死亡人数的潜在增长。越来越多的证据表明，使用口罩对于减轻COVID-19的社区传播至关重要，这项研究进一步证明了这一点。各州应推迟进一步重新开放，直到全面实施口罩规定，而当地企业的执法对于防止未来可能的关闭至关重要。本文的在线版本（10.1007/s11606-020-06277-0）包含补充材料，仅供授权用户使用。
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infected over 5 million United States (US) residents resulting in more than 180,000 deaths by August 2020. To mitigate transmission, most states ordered shelter-in-place orders in March and reopening strategies varied. To estimate excess COVID-19 cases and deaths after reopening compared with trends prior to reopening for two groups of states: (1) states with an evidence-based reopening strategy, defined as reopening indoor dining after implementing a statewide mask mandate, and (2) states reopening indoor dining rooms before implementing a statewide mask mandate. Interrupted time series quasi-experimental study design applied to publicly available secondary data. Fifty United States and the District of Columbia. Reopening indoor dining rooms before or after implementing a statewide mask mandate. Outcomes included daily cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths for each state. On average, the number of excess cases per 100,000 residents in states reopening without masks is ten times the number in states reopening with masks after 8 weeks (643.1 cases; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 406.9, 879.2 and 62.9 cases; CI = 12.6, 113.1, respectively). Excess cases after 6 weeks could have been reduced by 90% from 576,371 to 63,062 and excess deaths reduced by 80% from 22,851 to 4858 had states implemented mask mandates prior to reopening. Over 50,000 excess deaths were prevented within 6 weeks in 13 states that implemented mask mandates prior to reopening. Additional mitigation measures such as mask use counteract the potential growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths due to reopening businesses. This study contributes to the growing evidence that mask usage is essential for mitigating community transmission of COVID-19. States should delay further reopening until mask mandates are fully implemented, and enforcement by local businesses will be critical for preventing potential future closures. The online version of this article (10.1007/s11606-020-06277-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Kaufman, Brystana G.;Whitaker, Rebecca;Holmes, G. Mark
通讯作者：
Holmes, G. Mark
影响因子：
9.7
作者：
Lyu, Wei;Wehby, George L.
通讯作者：
Wehby, George L.
DOI：
10.1136/bmj.h2750
发表时间：
2015-06-09
期刊：
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kontopantelis E;Doran T;Springate DA;Buchan I;Reeves D
通讯作者：
Reeves D