Rehabilitating Duverger’s Theory
Rehabilitating Duverger’s Theory
复制标题
恢复杜韦尔热的理论
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Matt Golder
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Clark;Matt Golder
虽然Duverger传统上被视为同义词的机构列表方法的政党制度，本文表明，他认为社会压力背后的驱动力的政党倍增。选举制度很重要，但这只是因为它们决定了社会力量转化为政党的程度。尽管文献最终认识到社会和制度力量相互作用塑造政党制度，学者们似乎仍然没有完全理解Duverger理论的含义。这篇文章表明，现有的研究采用有缺陷的统计规范，使推理错误，并没有计算出所需的数量感兴趣。使用一个新的数据集，其中包括自1946年以来的选举，作者重新审视了Duverger的理论，发现现代测试在适当指定和解释时在很大程度上证实了他的期望。这一分析也扩展了目前的研究，具体估计选举机构的机械和战略修改的影响。
Although Duverger is traditionally seen as synonymous with the institution-list approach to party systems, this article shows that he believed social pressures were the driving force behind the multiplication of parties. Electoral institutions are important, but only because they determine the extent to which social forces are translated into political parties. Although the literature has finally come to realize that social and institutional forces interact to shape party systems, scholars still do not seem to fully understood the implications of Duverger’s theory. This article shows that existing research employs flawed statistical specifications, makes inferential errors, and does not calculate desired quantities of interest. Using a new data set that includes elections since 1946, the authors reexamine Duverger’s theory and find that modern tests largely bear out his expectations when properly specified and interpreted. This analysis also extends current research by specifically estimating the mechanical and strategic modifying effects of electoral institutions.