Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
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发表时间：
1999
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通讯作者：
R. Heuer
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作者：
R. Heuer
摘要：这卷拉在一起，并重新出版，与一些编辑，更新，和补充，在1978年至1986年期间写的文章，供内部使用的中央情报局情报局。其中四篇文章也出现在情报界杂志《情报研究》上。这些信息是相对永恒的，仍然与永无止境的追求更好的分析有关。这些文章基于对认知心理学文献的回顾，这些文献涉及人们如何处理信息以对不完整和模糊的信息做出判断。我选择了与情报分析最相关、最需要与情报分析人员交流的实验和发现。然后，我将技术报告翻译成情报分析人员能够理解的语言，并解释这些发现与情报分析人员面临的问题的相关性。其结果是一个折衷方案，可能不会完全令研究心理学家或情报分析师满意。认知心理学家和决策分析师可能会抱怨过于简单化，而非心理学家的读者可能不得不吸收一些新术语。不幸的是，心理过程是如此复杂，以至于讨论它们确实需要一些专门的词汇。
Abstract : This volume pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating, and additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate of Intelligence. Four of the articles also appeared in the Intelligence Community journal Studies in Intelligence during that time frame. The information is relatively timeless and still relevant to the never-ending quest for better analysis. The articles are based on reviewing cognitive psychology literature concerning how people process information to make judgments on incomplete and ambiguous information. I selected the experiments and findings that seem most relevant to intelligence analysis and most in need of communication to intelligence analysts. I then translated the technical reports into language that intelligence analysts can understand and interpreted the relevance of these findings to the problems intelligence analysts face. The result is a compromise that may not be wholly satisfactory to either research psychologists or intelligence analysts. Cognitive psychologists and decision analysts may complain of oversimplification, while the non-psychologist reader may have to absorb some new terminology. Unfortunately, mental processes are so complex that discussion of them does require some specialized vocabulary.