Effects of elevated CO2 and drought on wheat:: testing crop simulation models for different experimental and climatic conditions
Effects of elevated CO2 and drought on wheat:: testing crop simulation models for different experimental and climatic conditions
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DOI：
10.1016/s0167-8809(01)00352-8
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发表时间：
2002-12-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Villalobos, F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ewert, F;Rodriguez, D;Villalobos, F
增加二氧化碳浓度[CO2]对小麦的影响取决于水供应和气候条件，这是很难估计的。作物模拟模型常用于预测全球大气变化对粮食生产的影响。然而，由于田间试验资料有限，在不同气候条件下[CO_2]和干旱对作物影响的模拟研究很少。从三个作物模拟模式（LINTULCC 2，AFRCWHEAT 2，天狼星），这是不同的结构和机制的细节与观测进行了比较。这些是从2年的自由空气二氧化碳富集（FACE）实验在亚利桑那州的Marmarta和2年的标准化（在作物管理和土壤条件）开顶室（OTC）实验在布伦瑞克和吉森，德国。在一次模拟试验中，在西班牙南部干旱易发地区安达卢西亚的一个农场，利用模型评估了1987年至1999年期间[CO2]增加对小麦产量的可能影响。FACE试验中小麦的累积蒸散量（ET）和水分利用效率（WUE）的模拟结果与OTC试验的模拟结果不一致。辐射利用效率（芸香）和产量响应[CO2]和干旱的平均水平高于在FACE实验中的OTC。然而，OTC实验之间存在很大差异。OTCs中的植物生长可能通过与地块大小、边界植物的使用（或不使用）、气流模式、辐射平衡的修改和/或生根体积的限制相关的几个因素进行修改，这些因素未包括在模型中。在西班牙南部的农场产量的变化部分解释了模型，但无法解释的产量变化的来源无法确定，最有可能涉及的影响，不包括在模型中的病虫害。由于[CO2]加倍，西班牙南部的模拟戈伊增加了30 - 65%。模拟的增加是更大的[CO2] ×干旱相互作用时，假定（LINTULCC 2，AFRCWHEAT 2）比当它不是（天狼星）。因此，作物模拟模型能够再现小麦生长和产量在田间环境中不同的[CO2]和干旱处理。然而，[CO2]和干旱的综合影响仍存在不确定性，包括干旱胁迫的时间以及决定农场和更大规模产量变化的关系，需要进一步调查，包括模型测试。(C)2002 Elsevier Science B. V.保留所有权利。
Effects of increasing carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] on wheat vary depending on water supply and climatic conditions, which are difficult to estimate. Crop simulation models are often used to predict the impact of global atmospheric changes on food production. However, models have rarely been tested for effects on crops Of [CO2] and drought for different climatic conditions due to limited data available from field experiments.Simulations of the effects of elevated [CO2] and drought on spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) from three crop simulation models (LINTULCC2, AFRCWHEAT2, Sirius), which differ in structure and mechanistic detail, were compared with observations. These were from 2 years of free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments in Maricopa, Arizona and 2 years of standardised (in crop management and soil conditions) open-top chamber (OTC) experiments in Braunschweig and Giessen, Germany. In a simulation exercise, models were used to assess the possible impact of increased [CO2] on wheat yields measured between 1987 and 1999 at one farm site in the drought prone region of Andalucia, south Spain.The models simulated well final biomass (BM), grain yield (GY), cumulative evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency (WUE) of wheat grown in the FACE experiments but simulations were unsatisfactory for OTC experiments. Radiation use efficiency (RUE) and yield responses to [CO2] and drought were on average higher in OTC than in FACE experiments. However, there was large variation among OTC experiments. Plant growth in OTCs was probably modified by several factors related to plot size, the use (or not use) of border plants, airflow pattern, modification of radiation balance and/or restriction of rooting volume that were not included in the models. Variation in farm yields in south Spain was partly explained by the models, but sources of unexplained yield variation could not be identified and were most likely related to effects of pests and diseases that were not included in the models. Simulated GY in south Spain increased in the range between 30 and 65% due to doubling [CO2]. The simulated increase was larger when a [CO2] x drought interaction was assumed (LINTULCC2, AFRCWHEAT2) than when it was not (Sirius).It was concluded that crop simulation models are able to reproduce wheat growth and yield for different [CO2] and drought treatments in a field environment. However, there is still uncertainty about the combined effects of [CO2] and drought including the timing of drought stress and about relationships that determine yield variation at farm and larger scales that require further investigation including model testing. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.