Climate change mitigation strategies in agriculture, forestry and other land use sectors in Vietnam
Climate change mitigation strategies in agriculture, forestry and other land use sectors in Vietnam
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越南农业、林业和其他土地利用部门的气候变化减缓战略
DOI：
10.1007/s11027-012-9424-0
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yuzuru Matsuoka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nguyen Thai Hoa;Tomoko Hasegawa;Yuzuru Matsuoka
2000年，农业、林业和其他土地利用（AFOLU）部门占越南国内温室气体排放（GHG）的53%。然而，由于政治重点是适应，越南政府没有制定具体的减缓政策。本研究旨在利用AFOLU自下而上模型确定和评估到2030年越南AFOLU部门的缓解潜力。因此，研究结果可以帮助政府在该国制定缓解战略。该方法涉及：(1)制定未来作物收获面积、牲畜数量和土地利用面积及土地利用变化的假设；(2)确定具有高潜力的缓解对策并评估其成本效益。到2030年，通过零成本或负成本的无悔对策，可减少1100万吨二氧化碳当量/年的排放量。在充分应用对策的情况下，与基线排放水平相比，每年可减少48亿吨二氧化碳当量。对越南温室气体减排有重大贡献的缓解对策是：季中稻田排水（7亿吨二氧化碳当量/年）、淡季纳入稻草（3亿吨二氧化碳当量/年）和保护现有防护林（17亿吨二氧化碳当量/年）。根据我们的研究结果，预计10美元/吨二氧化碳当量的一揽子缓解对策对越南AFOLU部门的温室气体减排具有最大的经济效率和高缓解效果。
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors account for 53 % of the domestic greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Vietnam in 2000. However, due to political focus on adaptation, Vietnamese government has not formulated particular policy on mitigation in the sectors. This study aims to identify and assess mitigation potential in AFOLU sectors in Vietnam up to 2030 using AFOLU Bottom-up model. Therefore, the results can help government towards building mitigation strategies in the country. The methodology involves: (1) development of future assumptions of crops harvested areas, livestock population and area of land use and land use change and (2) identification of mitigation countermeasures with high potential and assessment of their cost-effectiveness. In 2030, 11 MtCO2eq/year of emission can be reduced by no-regret countermeasures which take zero or negative cost. In the case of full application of countermeasures, 48 MtCO2eq/year can be reduced compared to the baseline emission level. Mitigation countermeasures, which have great contribution for GHG reduction in Vietnam, are midseason drainage in rice paddy (7 MtCO2eq/year), off-season incorporation of rice straw (3 MtCO2eq/year) and conservation of existing protection forests (17 MtCO2eq/year). Based on our findings, a package of mitigation countermeasures at 10 USD/tCO2eq is expected to have the most economic efficiency and high mitigation for GHG mitigation in AFOLU sectors in Vietnam.