Is Violent Crime Increasing or Decreasing? a New Methodology to Measure Repeat Attacks Making Visible the Significance of Gender and Domestic Relations
Is Violent Crime Increasing or Decreasing? a New Methodology to Measure Repeat Attacks Making Visible the Significance of Gender and Domestic Relations
复制标题
DOI：
10.1093/bjc/azv131
复制
发表时间：
2016-11-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Francis, Brian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Walby, Sylvia;Towers, Jude;Francis, Brian
暴力犯罪率的下降已经停止。这是一项使用1994-2014年英格兰和威尔士犯罪调查的调查结果，并改进了方法，将高频受害者的经历包括在内。对犯罪数量的上限已经取消。我们通过使用三年移动平均线和回归技术来防止整体波动性上升，这些技术考虑了所有数据点，而不是点对点分析。我们的调查结果与官方统计数字之间的差异是由针对妇女的暴力犯罪和家庭犯罪者造成的。暴力犯罪发展轨迹出现转折点的时机与2008/09年的经济危机相吻合。
The fall in the rate of violent crime has stopped. This is a finding of an investigation using the Crime Survey for England and Wales, 1994-2014, and an improved methodology to include the experiences of high-frequency victims. The cap on the number of crimes included has been removed. We prevent overall volatility from rising by using three-year moving averages and regression techniques that take account of all the data points rather than point to point analysis. The difference between our findings and official statistics is driven by violent crime committed against women and by domestic perpetrators. The timing of the turning point in the trajectory of violent crime corresponds with the economic crisis in 2008/09.