Uncertainty analysis of penicillin V production using Monte Carlo simulation.
Uncertainty analysis of penicillin V production using Monte Carlo simulation.
复制标题
使用蒙特卡罗模拟对青霉素 V 生产进行不确定性分析。
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
C. Cooney
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Arno P. Biwer;S. Griffith;C. Cooney
不确定性和可变性影响生物技术和医药产品生产的经济和环境绩效。然而，商业过程模拟软件通常提供假设确定性而非随机过程参数的分析，因此无法处理决策过程中出现的方差所造成的复杂性。本文以青霉素 V 的生产为例，展示了如何量化和评估不确定性。第一步是构建流程模型，并分析其成本结构和环境影响。第二步是根据可用的过程和文献数据识别不确定变量并确定其概率分布。最后，进行蒙特卡罗模拟，以了解这些不确定性如何通过模型传播并影响关键的经济和环境结果。因此，这些目标函数的总体变化被量化，识别对现有变化影响最大的技术、供应链和市场参数，并分析经济和生态评价之间的差异。在我们的案例研究分析中，我们表明发酵罐中的最终青霉素和生物质浓度对单位生产成本和环境影响的方差贡献最大。青霉素销售价格主导着投资回报差异以及其他收入相关参数的差异。
Uncertainty and variability affect economic and environmental performance in the production of biotechnology and pharmaceutical products. However, commercial process simulation software typically provides analysis that assumes deterministic rather than stochastic process parameters and thus is not capable of dealing with the complexities created by variance that arise in the decision-making process. Using the production of penicillin V as a case study, this article shows how uncertainty can be quantified and evaluated. The first step is construction of a process model, as well as analysis of its cost structure and environmental impact. The second step is identification of uncertain variables and determination of their probability distributions based on available process and literature data. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are run to see how these uncertainties propagate through the model and affect key economic and environmental outcomes. Thus, the overall variation of these objective functions are quantified, the technical, supply chain, and market parameters that contribute most to the existing variance are identified and the differences between economic and ecological evaluation are analyzed. In our case study analysis, we show that final penicillin and biomass concentrations in the fermenter have the highest contribution to variance for both unit production cost and environmental impact. The penicillin selling price dominates return on investment variance as well as the variance for other revenue-dependent parameters.