Japan's Stagnant Nineties: A Vector Autoregression Retrospective
Japan's Stagnant Nineties: A Vector Autoregression Retrospective
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日本停滞的九十年代：向量自回归回顾
DOI：
10.2307/3867661
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Rendu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Ramaswamy;C. Rendu
本文采用向量自回归（VAR）方法来识别20世纪90年代日本经济增长放缓的驱动因素。对住宅和非住宅投资的负面冲击已被证明是经济放缓的重要决定因素。尽管资产价格暴跌，但对私人消费的负面冲击相对较小。一个令人惊讶的结论是，公共消费趋势对九十年代的经济活动产生了抑制作用。VAR的估计不支持反事实的猜测，即如果没有财政政策的扩张性转变，日本的经济活动会明显减弱。
This paper uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to identify the driving forces of the growth slowdown in Japan during the 1990s. Negative shocks to both residential and nonresidential investment are shown to have been important determinants of the slowdown. Despite the collapse in asset prices, negative shocks to private consumption were relatively small. A surprising conclusion is that trends in public consumption had a dampening impact on activity in the nineties. The VAR estimations do not support the counterfactual conjecture that activity in Japan would have been significantly weaker in the absence of the expansionary shift in fiscal policy.