Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science
Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science
复制标题
DOI：
10.1126/science.aac4716
复制
发表时间：
2015-08-28
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Zuni, Kellylynn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aarts, Alexander A.;Anderson, Joanna E.;Zuni, Kellylynn
复制性是科学的一个定义性特征，但它在多大程度上表征了当前的研究尚不清楚。我们对发表在三本心理学期刊上的100项实验和相关研究进行了复制，使用了高性能的设计和原始材料。复制效应是原始效应的一半，代表着大幅下降。97%的原始研究具有统计学意义的结果。36%的重复结果具有统计学显著性; 47%的原始效应量在重复效应量的95%置信区间内; 39%的效应被主观评定为复制了原始结果;如果假设原始结果没有偏倚，则将原始结果和重复结果结合起来，剩下68%的效应具有统计学显著性。相关性检验表明，复制的成功是更好地预测的原始证据的强度比原始和复制团队的特点。
Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.