Nonlinear response of ozone to precursor emission changes in China: a modeling study using response surface methodology
Nonlinear response of ozone to precursor emission changes in China: a modeling study using response surface methodology
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-11-5027-2011
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发表时间：
2010-12
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
J. Xing;Shuxiao Wang;C. Jang;Yun Zhu;Jianqi Hao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Xing;Shuxiao Wang;C. Jang;Yun Zhu;Jianqi Hao
抽象的。统计响应面方法(RSM)被成功地应用于社区多尺度空气质量模式(CMAQ)臭氧敏感性研究的分析。预测性能已通过交叉验证、样本外验证和等值线验证得到验证。通过计算实验，对样本方法和关键参数，包括统计内插所涉及的最大变量数和训练样本进行了测试和选择。利用2005年7月模型研究的响应面模型分析，评估了单个来源类别的总体影响，其中包括北京、上海和广州三个特大城市的本地/区域NOx和VOC排放源以及发电厂的NOx排放。在臭氧水平较高的下风区，控制NOx似乎有利于臭氧的减少，而且在光化学污染严重的时期，控制NOx可能比人为控制VOC更有效。区域NOx源类别对三个特大城市的地面臭氧混合率有很大贡献。没有区域参与的地方NOx排放控制可能会增加由于VOC有限的条件而增加城市臭氧水平的风险。然而，当地的NOx控制提供了相当大的上层臭氧(臭氧化学受NOx限制的地方长达1公里)的减少，并有助于改善下风区的区域空气质量。更严格的NOx排放控制对臭氧的减少有很大的影响，因为从VOC限制的化学转变为NOx限制的化学。因此，中国应大力加强NOx排放控制，减少臭氧污染。
Abstract. Statistical response surface methodology (RSM) is successfully applied for a Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) analysis of ozone sensitivity studies. Prediction performance has been demonstrated through cross validation, out-of-sample validation and isopleth validation. Sample methods and key parameters, including the maximum numbers of variables involved in statistical interpolation and training samples have been tested and selected through computational experiments. Overall impacts from individual source categories which include local/regional NOx and VOC emission sources and NOx emissions from power plants for three megacities – Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou – were evaluated using an RSM analysis of a July 2005 modeling study. NOx control appears to be beneficial for ozone reduction in the downwind areas which usually experience high ozone levels, and NOx control is likely to be more effective than anthropogenic VOC control during periods of heavy photochemical pollution. Regional NOx source categories are strong contributors to surface ozone mixing ratios in three megacities. Local NOx emission control without regional involvement may raise the risk of increasing urban ozone levels due to the VOC-limited conditions. However, local NOx control provides considerable reduction of ozone in upper layers (up to 1 km where the ozone chemistry is NOx-limited) and helps improve regional air quality in downwind areas. Stricter NOx emission control has a substantial effect on ozone reduction because of the shift from VOC-limited to NOx-limited chemistry. Therefore, NOx emission control should be significantly enhanced to reduce ozone pollution in China.