Progress toward eliminating TB and HIV deaths in Brazil, 2001-2015: a spatial assessment.
Progress toward eliminating TB and HIV deaths in Brazil, 2001-2015: a spatial assessment.
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2001-2015 年巴西消除结核病和艾滋病毒死亡的进展：空间评估。
DOI：
10.1186/s12916-018-1131-6
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发表时间：
2018-09-06
期刊：
影响因子：
9.3
通讯作者：
Hay SI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ross JM;Henry NJ;Dwyer-Lindgren LA;de Paula Lobo A;Marinho de Souza F;Biehl MH;Ray SE;Reiner RC Jr;Stubbs RW;Wiens KE;Earl L;Kutz MJ;Bhattacharjee NV;Kyu HH;Naghavi M;Hay SI
正如先前对26个州和联邦区的估计，巴西的结核病和艾滋病毒负担很高，社会和健康指标也很不平等。我们通过对巴西5400多个城市的结核病和艾滋病死亡率以及结核病病死率进行建模，改进了负担估计的地理细节。这项生态研究使用了2001年至2015年国家死亡率信息系统的重要登记数据和国家传染病通报系统的结核病病例通报。使用贝叶斯空间显式混合效应回归模型，按病因和性别分别对结核病和艾滋病毒导致的死亡率进行建模。结核病发病率采用同样的方法建模。结果根据2016年全球疾病负担研究进行校准。计算结核病的病死率。在全国和各州内，结核病和艾滋病毒死亡率存在很大的不平等。2001年至2015年期间，全国未感染艾滋病毒的结核病死亡率下降了近50%，但男性艾滋病毒死亡率下降了20%多一点，女性下降了10%。全国第90百分位城市的结核病和艾滋病毒死亡率是第10百分位城市的三倍以上，2001年男性结核病死亡率最差的城市中有近70%，女性死亡率超过75%，2015年也是最差的十分之一。同一个城市的艾滋病毒排名指标被观察到在55%和61%之间。在各州内，最差十分位与最佳十分位城市按性别分列的结核病死亡率比率从1.4到2.9不等，艾滋病毒死亡率比率从1.4到4.2不等。2001年，9.6%的城市男性和38.4%的城市女性实现了世界卫生组织结核病病死率低于10%的目标，到2014年，男性和女性城市分别提高到38.4%和56.6%。同一个州内各城市的死亡率的相对变化几乎与全国范围内的死亡率的相对变化一样大。在这种地理细节水平上监测死亡率负担对于指导精确的公共卫生应对至关重要。本文的在线版本（10.1186/s12916-018-1131-6）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
Brazil has high burdens of tuberculosis (TB) and HIV, as previously estimated for the 26 states and the Federal District, as well as high levels of inequality in social and health indicators. We improved the geographic detail of burden estimation by modelling deaths due to TB and HIV and TB case fatality ratios for the more than 5400 municipalities in Brazil. This ecological study used vital registration data from the national mortality information system and TB case notifications from the national communicable disease notification system from 2001 to 2015. Mortality due to TB and HIV was modelled separately by cause and sex using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed effects regression model. TB incidence was modelled using the same approach. Results were calibrated to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Case fatality ratios were calculated for TB. There was substantial inequality in TB and HIV mortality rates within the nation and within states. National-level TB mortality in people without HIV infection declined by nearly 50% during 2001 to 2015, but HIV mortality declined by just over 20% for males and 10% for females. TB and HIV mortality rates for municipalities in the 90th percentile nationally were more than three times rates in the 10th percentile, with nearly 70% of the worst-performing municipalities for male TB mortality and more than 75% for female mortality in 2001 also in the worst decile in 2015. The same municipality ranking metric for HIV was observed to be between 55% and 61%. Within states, the TB mortality rate ratios by sex for municipalities in the worst decile versus the best decile varied from 1.4 to 2.9, and HIV varied from 1.4 to 4.2. The World Health Organization target case fatality rate for TB of less than 10% was achieved in 9.6% of municipalities for males versus 38.4% for females in 2001 and improved to 38.4% and 56.6% of municipalities for males versus females, respectively, by 2014. Mortality rates in municipalities within the same state exhibited nearly as much relative variation as within the nation as a whole. Monitoring the mortality burden at this level of geographic detail is critical for guiding precision public health responses. The online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-018-1131-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Bassett IV;Regan S;Mbonambi H;Blossom J;Bogan S;Bearnot B;Robine M;Walensky RP;Mhlongo B;Freedberg KA;Thulare H;Losina E
通讯作者：
Losina E
绘制撒哈拉以南非洲艾滋病毒感染的空间变异性：用于局部艾滋病毒预防和控制的有效信息。
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Cuadros DF;Li J;Branscum AJ;Akullian A;Jia P;Mziray EN;Tanser F
通讯作者：
Tanser F
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Bourdillon, Paul M.;Goncalves, Crhistinne C. M.;Andrews, Jason R.
通讯作者：
Andrews, Jason R.
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Gerberry, David J.;Wagner, Bradley G.;Blower, Sally
通讯作者：
Blower, Sally
DOI：
10.1590/s0037-86822010000500013
发表时间：
2010-10-01
影响因子：
2
作者：
Vendramini, Silvia Helena Figueiredo;Santos, Natália Sperli Geraldes Marin dos;Ruffino Netto, Antonio
通讯作者：
Ruffino Netto, Antonio