Discussion of Multicyclic Hubbert Modeling as a Method for Forecasting Future Petroleum Production
Discussion of Multicyclic Hubbert Modeling as a Method for Forecasting Future Petroleum Production
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DOI：
10.1021/ef1012648
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发表时间：
2011-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.3
通讯作者：
Conder, James A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderson, Ken B.;Conder, James A.
资源的多循环Hubbert分析。生产，特别是与预测未来石油生产有关的生产，在科学界和公众界受到了极大的关注。虽然在某些情况下，这种技术可以是一个有价值的工具，了解资源生产，其有用的预测它的时候被夸大了。建模参数的影响，如应用的Hubbert循环数，可以显着限制所获得的结果的有效性。多循环哈伯特分析的例子表明，虽然这种方法可以在某些情况下是有用的，有一些隐含的假设的方法，需要理解的有效性时，评估从这种方法得到的预测。
Multicyclic Hubbert analysis of resource. Production, especially as it relates to forecasting future Petroleum production, has received significant traction in scientific and public circles. Although in some cases this technique can be a valuable tool for understanding resource production, its usefulness as a predictor has it times been overstated. The effects of modeling parameters, such as the number of Hubbert cycles applied, can significantly limit the validity of the results obtained. Examples of multicyclic Hubbert analyses show that while this approach can be useful in certain circumstances, there are a number of implicit assumptions underlying the method that need to be understood when assessing the validity of forecasts derived from this approach.