3D water-vapor tomography with Shanghai GPS network to improve forecasted moisture field

3D water-vapor tomography with Shanghai GPS network to improve forecasted moisture field
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利用上海 GPS 网络进行 3D 水蒸气层析成像以改善湿度场预测

DOI:
10.1007/s11434-006-0607-5
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发表时间:
2006-03
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大气中水汽的垂直结构是数值天气预报模型的初始信息之一。由于大气中水汽的强烈变化以及传统观测技术的时空解有限,数值天气预报模型的初始水汽场无法准确描述。目前,利用GPS倾斜观测研究水汽剖面在国际上十分流行。利用上海GPS网络的倾斜水汽(SWV)观测,在国内首次诊断了上海地区的三维(3D)水汽结构。在水汽层析成像中,采用高斯加权函数作为水平约束,采用数值预报的输出作为先验信息,并考虑边界条件。针对没有精确的观测先验权重的问题,在水蒸气层析成像中首先引入方差分量的估计来确定后验权重。选择稳健估计是为了减少错误对解决方案的影响。针对水蒸气随高度增加而下降的特性,沿垂直方向采用不等重。层析成像结果与数值模型(MM5)提供的剖面图的比较表明,GPS倾斜水汽可以明显改善MM5的湿度场预报。利用GPS倾斜观测近实时研究大气三维结构对于改善短期天气预报初始水汽场、提高数值天气预报的准确性具有重要意义。
The vertical structure of water vapor in atmosphere is one of the initial information of numerical weather forecast model. Because of the strong variation of water vapor in atmosphere and limited spatio-temporal solutions of traditional observation technique, the initial water vapor field of numerical weather forecast model can not accurately be described. At present, using GPS slant observations to study water vapor profile is very popular in the world. Using slant water vapor(SWV) observations from Shanghai GPS network, we diagnose the three-dimensional(3D) water vapor structure over Shanghai area firstly in China. In water vapor tomography, Gauss weighted function is used as horizontal constraint, the output of numerical forecast is used as apriori information, and boundary condition is also considered. For the problem without exact apriori weights for observations, estimation of variance components is introduced firstly in water vapor tomography to determine posteriori weights. Robust estimation is chosen for reducing the effect of blunders on solutions. For the descending characteristic of water vapor with height increasing, non-equal weights are used along vertical direction. Comparisons between tomography results and the profile provided by numerical model (MM5) show that the forecasted moisture fields of MM5 can be improved obviously by GPS slant water vapor. Using GPS slant observations to study 3D structure of atmosphere in near real-time is very important for improving initial water vapor field of short-term weather forecast and enhancing the accuracy of numerical weather forecast.
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