A SIMULATION-MODEL OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF URBAN DENGUE FEVER - LITERATURE ANALYSIS, MODEL DEVELOPMENT, PRELIMINARY VALIDATION, AND SAMPLES OF SIMULATION RESULTS
A SIMULATION-MODEL OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF URBAN DENGUE FEVER - LITERATURE ANALYSIS, MODEL DEVELOPMENT, PRELIMINARY VALIDATION, AND SAMPLES OF SIMULATION RESULTS
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DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.1995.53.489
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发表时间：
1995-11-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
KEESLING, JE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
FOCKS, DA;DANIELS, E;KEESLING, JE
我们已经开发了一对随机模拟模型，描述了登革热病毒在城市环境中传播的日常动态。我们的目标是构建综合模型，考虑到已知影响登革热流行病学的大多数因素。该模型有一个面向特定地点的数据，并被设计用于业务程序以及研究人员。第一个模型，集装箱栖息的蚊子模拟模型（CIMSiM），天气驱动的动态生命表模型的集装箱栖息的蚊子，如埃及伊蚊，提供输入的传输模型，登革热模拟模型（DENSiM）;昆虫学模型的描述和验证先前发表。传播模型的基础是模拟人口增长对国家和年龄特定的出生率和死亡率的反应。按登革病毒类型对个体血清学进行统计，反映感染情况和血清反应阳性母亲的分娩情况。每日估计成蚊存活率、生殖营养发育以及来自CIMSiM的新出现的雌性的重量和数量用于在DENSiM中创建叮咬蚊子种群。生存和出现的价值观决定了人口的规模，而gonotrophic发展的速度和女性体重估计影响叮咬频率。病毒在人体内的温度和滴度影响外源性潜伏期;滴度也可能影响病毒从人传播到蚊子的概率。DENSiM中的感染模型解释了病毒在个体内的发展及其在两个群体之间的传播。与CIMSiM的情况一样，用于任何特定现象的特定值都在菜单上，可以随时更改。模拟涉及不同血清型的并发流行是可能的。为了提供少量的验证，并证明一个特定的位置的参数化过程中，我们比较模拟结果与报告的性质，流行病和抗体的血清阳性率在洪都拉斯在低洼的沿海城市化和特古西加尔帕在1978年首次引入登革热-1到中美洲。最后，我们用一些模拟结果的例子来说明可以用模型研究的问题类型。
We have developed a pair of stochastic simulation models that describe the daily dynamics of dengue virus transmission in the urban environment. Our goal has been to construct comprehensive models that take into account the majority of factors known to influence dengue epidemiology. The models have an orientation toward site-specific data and are designed to be used by operational programs as well as researchers. The first model, the container-inhabiting mosquito simulation model (CIMSiM), a weather-driven dynamic Life-table model of container-inhabiting mosquitoes such as Aedes aegypti, provides inputs to the transmission model, the dengue simulation model (DENSiM); a description and validation of the entomology model was published previously. The basis of the transmission model is the simulation of a human population growing in response to country- and age-specific birth and death rates. An accounting of individual serologies is maintained by type of dengue virus, reflecting infection and birth to seropositive mothers. Daily estimates of adult mosquito survival, gonotrophic development, and the weight and number of emerging females from the CIMSiM are used to create the biting mosquito population in the DENSiM. The survival and emergence values determine the size of the population while the rate of gonotrophic development and female weight estimates influence biting frequency. Temperature and titer of virus in the human influences the extrinsic incubation period; titer may also influence the probability of transfer of virus from human to mosquito. The infection model within the DENSiM accounts for the development of virus within individuals and its passage between both populations. As in the case of the CIMSiM, the specific values used for any particular phenomenon are on menus where they can be readily changed. It is possible to simulate concurrent epidemics involving different serotypes. To provide a modicum of validation and to demonstrate the parameterization process for a specific location, we compare simulation results with reports on the nature of epidemics and seroprevalence of antibody in Honduras in low-lying coastal urbanizations and Tegucigalpa following the initial introduction of dengue-1 in 1978 into Central America. We conclude with some additional examples of simulation results to give an indication of the types of questions that can be investigated with the models.