Analysis and Reduction of Systematic Errors through a Seamless Approach to Modeling Weather and Climate
Analysis and Reduction of Systematic Errors through a Seamless Approach to Modeling Weather and Climate
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DOI：
10.1175/2010jcli3541.1
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发表时间：
2010-11
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
G. Martin;S. Milton;C. Senior;M. Brooks;S. Ineson;T. Reichler;J. Kim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Martin;S. Milton;C. Senior;M. Brooks;S. Ineson;T. Reichler;J. Kim
摘要减少系统误差是模型开发的一个持续挑战。气候模型中的反馈和补偿误差往往使寻找系统误差的来源变得困难。在这篇文章中，它展示了模型开发如何受益于在一系列时间和空间尺度上使用相同的模型。检验了两个特殊的系统误差：热带环流和降水分布，以及北半球大陆地区夏季陆地表面温度和湿度偏差。这些误差中的每一个都会在几天到几十年的时间尺度上影响模型的性能。在这两种情况下，长时间尺度误差的特征都是在模拟的最初几天，即任何大规模反馈发生之前发展起来的。从实际大气状态初始化的预报的最初几天的模式诊断直接与观测值进行比较的能力使物理定义成为可能。
Abstract The reduction of systematic errors is a continuing challenge for model development. Feedbacks and compensating errors in climate models often make finding the source of a systematic error difficult. In this paper, it is shown how model development can benefit from the use of the same model across a range of temporal and spatial scales. Two particular systematic errors are examined: tropical circulation and precipitation distribution, and summer land surface temperature and moisture biases over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Each of these errors affects the model performance on time scales ranging from a few days to several decades. In both cases, the characteristics of the long-time-scale errors are found to develop during the first few days of simulation, before any large-scale feedbacks have taken place. The ability to compare the model diagnostics from the first few days of a forecast, initialized from a realistic atmospheric state, directly with observations has allowed physical def...