Possible deep connection between volcanic systems evidenced by sequential assimilation of geodetic data.
Possible deep connection between volcanic systems evidenced by sequential assimilation of geodetic data.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-29811-x
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发表时间：
2018-08-03
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Vandemeulebrouck J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bato MG;Pinel V;Yan Y;Jouanne F;Vandemeulebrouck J
到目前为止，附近火山之间可能存在的深层联系只是根据它们喷发活动的相关性或地球化学的论点来确定的。由于缺乏跟踪瞬态过程的技术，利用大地测量数据监测岩浆系统的深部动力学及其之间可能的干扰仍然有限。在这里，我们首次对地面位移数据使用序列数据同化技术（集合卡尔曼滤波）来评估冰岛Grímsvötn和Bárðarbunga火山活动之间可能的相互作用。利用Grímsvötn管道系统的双储层动力学模型，并假设固定的几何形状和恒定的岩浆性质，我们检索了Grímsvötn下方基底岩浆流入的时间演化，在Bárðarbunga裂谷事件开始前的10个月内，该岩浆流入减少了85%。我们解释了Grímsvötn岩浆供应中至少0.016 km3的损失，这是Bárðarbunga下面的岩浆积聚和随后41公里外的Holuhraun喷发的补充的结果。我们证明，除了预测火山爆发的兴趣之外，大地测量数据的顺序同化具有独特的潜力，可以深入了解火山系统的根源。
The existence of possible deep connections between nearby volcanoes has so far only been formulated on the basis of correlation in their eruptive activities or geochemical arguments. The use of geodetic data to monitor the deep dynamics of magmatic systems and the possible interference between them has remained limited due to the lack of techniques to follow transient processes. Here, for the first time, we use sequential data assimilation technique (Ensemble Kalman Filter) on ground displacement data to evaluate a possible interplay between the activities of Grímsvötn and Bárðarbunga volcanoes in Iceland. Using a two-reservoir dynamical model for the Grímsvötn plumbing system and assuming a fixed geometry and constant magma properties, we retrieve the temporal evolution of the basal magma inflow beneath Grímsvötn that drops by up to 85% during the 10 months preceding the initiation of the Bárðarbunga rifting event. We interpret the loss of at least 0.016 km3 in the magma supply of Grímsvötn as a consequence of magma accumulation beneath Bárðarbunga and subsequent feeding of the Holuhraun eruption 41 km away. We demonstrate that, in addition to its interest for predicting volcanic eruptions, sequential assimilation of geodetic data has a unique potential to give insights into volcanic system roots.
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