The impact of population on CO2 emissions: evidence from European countries
The impact of population on CO2 emissions: evidence from European countries
复制标题
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.902703
复制
发表时间：
2006-06
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
I. Martínez‐Zarzoso;Aurelia Bengochea-Morancho;Rafael Morales-Lage
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
I. Martínez‐Zarzoso;Aurelia Bengochea-Morancho;Rafael Morales-Lage
本文分析了欧盟国家人口增长对二氧化碳排放的影响。传统上，研究人员假设排放量相对于人口增长具有单一弹性。在本研究中，将人口作为模型中的预测因子，而不是作为因变量（人均排放量）的一部分，从而放宽了上述的单一弹性假设。我们还通过考虑到样本中异质性的存在并考虑动态规范，为现有文献做出了贡献。样本涵盖了目前欧盟成员国1975-1999年期间的情况。我们的研究结果表明，人口增长对排放的影响在新加入的国家中大于比例，而对于老欧盟成员国，当时间序列和动态特性被正确指定时，弹性低于统一且不显著。因此，在未来欧盟内部气候变化政策的讨论中，应考虑到当前欧盟成员国人口变化对二氧化碳排放的不同影响。
This paper analyses the impact of population growth on CO2 emissions in European Union countries. Traditionally, researchers have assumed a unitary elasticity of emissions with respect to population growth. In this study population is treated as a predictor in the model, instead of being included as part of the dependent variable (per capita emissions), thus relaxing the above-mentioned assumption of unitary elasticity. We also contribute to the existing literature by taking into account the presence of heterogeneity in the sample and considering a dynamic specification. The sample covers the period 1975–1999 for the current European Union members. Our results show that the impact of population growth on emissions is more than proportional for recent accession countries whereas for old EU members, the elasticity is lower than unity and non significant when the properties of the time series and the dynamics are correctly specified. The different impact of population change on CO2 emissions for the current EU members should therefore be taken into account in future discussions of climate change policies within the EU.