Revisiting the risk of automation
Revisiting the risk of automation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.econlet.2017.07.001
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Zierahn, Ulrich
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arntz, Melanie;Gregory, Terry;Zierahn, Ulrich
鉴于人工智能（AI）和机器人技术领域的快速发展，许多科学家讨论了新技术替代人类劳动的潜力。各种实证评估表明，西方工业化国家多达一半的工作岗位在未来10到20年内面临自动化的风险。本文表明，这些情景高估了可自动化工作的份额，忽视了职业内任务的实质性异质性以及工作在数字化转型中的适应性。为了证明这一点，我们使用了详细的任务数据，并表明，当考虑到职业中的任务范围时，美国工作的自动化风险从38%下降到9%。(C)2017爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
In light of rapid advances in the fields of Artificial Intelligence (Al) and robotics, many scientists discuss the potentials of new technologies to substitute for human labor. Fueling the economic debate, various empirical assessments suggest that up to half of all jobs in western industrialized countries are at risk of automation in the next 10 to 20 years. This paper demonstrates that these scenarios are overestimating the share of automatable jobs by neglecting the substantial heterogeneity of tasks within occupations as well as the adaptability of jobs in the digital transformation. To demonstrate this, we use detailed task data and show that, when taking into accounting the spectrum of tasks within occupations, the automation risk of US jobs drops, ceteris paribus, from 38% to 9%. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.