Past, present and future of colorectal cancer in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Past, present and future of colorectal cancer in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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DOI：
10.4103/1319-3767.43275
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发表时间：
2008-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Bin Sadiq, Bakr M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ibrahim, Ezzeldin M;Zeeneldin, Ahmed A;Bin Sadiq, Bakr M
背景/目的：在沙特阿拉伯王国（KSA），结直肠癌（CRC）的粗发病率仅次于乳腺癌。为了评估该国未来结直肠癌的负担，我们设计了一个模型，考虑到最近的生活方式模式以及人口的增长和老龄化。方法：我们将沙特阿拉伯的结直肠癌统计数据（使用来自国家癌症登记处的数据）与来自美国（美国）监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库的数据进行了比较。我们使用 Joinpoint 回归程序来确定长期趋势的变化，同时使用 GLOBOCAN 2002 软件来预测未来的发病率和死亡率。 结果：1994 年至 2003 年间，沙特阿拉伯的 CRC 年龄标准化率 (ASR) 几乎翻了一番，而美国则没有显着下降。 2001 年至 2003 年间，美国女性 CRC 发病率的年度百分比变化 (APC) 显示出无显着下降，而沙特女性的 APC 则显示出 6% 的无显着上升。另一方面，1999 年至 2003 年间，沙特男性的发病率显着上升，APC 为 20.5%。预测模型表明，到 2030 年，沙特阿拉伯男女的 CRC 发病率可能会增加四倍。结论：在沙特阿拉伯，CRC 发病率目前和预期的增长令人震惊。讨论了应对这一挑战的务实建议。目前的工作可以作为研究其他流行类型癌症的模型，特别是在发展中国家。
BACKGROUND/AIMS: The crude frequency of colorectal cancer (CRC) is second to breast cancer in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). To assess the future burden of CRC in the country, we designed a model that takes into consideration the recent lifestyle pattern and the growth and aging of the population.METHODS: We compared CRC statistics for KSA (using data from the National Cancer Registry) with that from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) databases of the United States of America (USA). We used the Joinpoint regression program to identify changes in secular trends, while the GLOBOCAN 2002 software was used to project future incidence and mortality.RESULTS: Between 1994 and 2003, age-standardized rates (ASRs) for CRC in KSA almost doubled, as compared to a nonsignificant decline in USA. Between 2001 and 2003, while the annual percent change (APC) of CRC incidence in the USA showed a nonsignificant decrease in females, APC in Saudi females showed a nonsignificant rise of six percent. On the other hand, the rising incidence among Saudi males, during the years 1999 to 2003, was significant, with an APC of 20.5%. The projection model suggested that the incidence of CRC in KSA could increase fourfold in both genders by the year 2030.CONCLUSIONS: In KSA, the present and expected increase in CRC rates is alarming. Pragmatic recommendations to face that challenge are discussed. The present work could serve as a model to study other prevalent types of cancer, particularly in developing countries.