Effects of land use changes on streamflow generation in the Rhine basin
Effects of land use changes on streamflow generation in the Rhine basin
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DOI：
10.1029/2008wr007574
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发表时间：
2009-06-11
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Verburg, P. H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.;Terink, W.;Verburg, P. H.
由于气候变化，预计莱茵河流域的水文状况将从融雪-降雨相结合的状况转变为更受雨水支配的状况，从而导致更极端的洪峰和低流量。土地使用的变化可能通过城市化加强这种转变的影响，也可能通过植树造林等方式抵消这种影响。在这项研究中，我们调查的影响，预计土地利用变化的情况下，河流流量。在不同的空间尺度上，研究了莱茵河流域的平均和极端流量对土地利用变化的敏感性。变渗透能力（维克）（版本4.0.5）模型是用于水文模拟的高分辨率大气数据集跨越1993-2003年。该模型进行了修改，允许裸土蒸发和冠层蒸散同时在植被稀疏的地区，因为这是更适合于模拟季节效应。所有预测的土地利用变化情景都会导致径流量增加。然而，增加的幅度在不同规模的次流域之间变化，从莱茵河上游部分（约60，000 km（2））的约2%到拉恩流域（约7000 km（2））的约30%。流域出口处的径流对土地利用变化相当不敏感，因为整个流域受影响的面积相对较小。此外，预计的土地使用变化（城市化和将耕地转变为（半）自然土地或森林）会产生相反的影响。然而，在较小的规模上，影响可能相当大。
The hydrological regime of the Rhine basin is expected to shift from a combined snowmelt-rainfall regime to a more rainfall-dominated regime because of climate change, leading to more extreme flood peaks and low flows. Land use changes may reinforce the effects of this shift through urbanization or may counteract them through, for example, afforestation. In this study, we investigate the effect of projected land use change scenarios on river discharge. Sensitivity of mean and extreme discharge in the Rhine basin to land use changes is investigated at various spatial scales. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) (version 4.0.5) model is used for hydrological modeling forced by a high-resolution atmospheric data set spanning the period 1993-2003. The model is modified to allow for bare soil evaporation and canopy evapotranspiration simultaneously in sparsely vegetated areas, as this is more appropriate for simulating seasonal effects. All projected land use change scenarios lead to an increase in streamflow. The magnitude of the increase, however, varies among subbasins of different scales from about 2% in the upstream part of the Rhine (about 60,000 km(2)) to about 30% in the Lahn basin (about 7000 km(2)). Streamflow at the basin outlet proved rather insensitive to land use changes because over the entire basin affected areas are relatively small. Moreover, projected land use changes (urbanization and conversion of cropland into (semi) natural land or forest) have opposite effects. At smaller scales, however, the effects can be considerable.