Armed conflict and fisheries in the Lake Victoria basin
Armed conflict and fisheries in the Lake Victoria basin
复制标题
维多利亚湖流域的武装冲突和渔业
作者：
S. Glaser;Cullen S. Hendrix;B. Franck;K. Wedig;L. Kaufman
国内冲突是当今世界最普遍的武装冲突形式，但渔业研究基本上没有这一粮食和收入安全的重要驱动因素。渔业冲突是社会生态系统中复杂动态的一个例子。我们的理论和文件之间存在这样一个反馈回路的冲突在乌干达和维多利亚湖的渔业。乌干达北方的内战导致大规模人口流离失所，这与维多利亚湖捕鱼努力量的增加相对应。随后，主要商业渔业尼罗河鲈鱼的捕获量发生变化，引发了乌干达和肯尼亚之间米戈岛湖本身的武装冲突。从这个案例中，我们得出了七个主要结论。首先，这些基于相关性的关系是说明性的，但不是结论性的，我们需要进一步的实证研究。第二，冲突和渔业子系统之间的耦合是空间不对称的：冲突的影响是分散的，在渔业的广泛变化的联系，而渔业的影响可能会产生更多的本地化的冲突事件。第三，与冲突学者最相关的是，捕捞努力量和渔获量的驱动因素可能来自不同的子系统，但它们的变化和影响必须一致分析。第四，冲突对一般自然资源，特别是对渔业的复杂和路径依赖性影响，突出表明迫切需要进行有针对性的调查和更机械的理解。第五，维多利亚湖渔业的开放性可能会加剧其他系统中不存在的不稳定性。第六，冲突对渔业的扩散性和具体情况的影响意味着渔业管理模式（例如，目前不应将冲突作为驱动因素。最后，各国及其利益攸关方应注重冲突期间短期应对机制的就业多样化，以此作为缩短冲突-渔业反馈循环的手段。
Civil conflict is the most prevalent form of armed conflict in the world today, but this significant driver of food and income security has been largely missing from studies of fisheries. Fisheries conflict is an example of complex dynamics operating in social-ecological systems. We theorize and document the existence of such a feedback loop between conflict in Uganda and fisheries in Lake Victoria. Civil war in northern Uganda resulted in mass human population displacement, which corresponded in time with increases in fishing effort in Lake Victoria. Subsequent changes in catch of Nile perch, the dominant commercial fishery, sparked armed conflict in the lake itself, at Migingo Island, between Uganda and Kenya. From this case study, we draw seven main conclusions. First, these correlation-based relationships are illustrative but not conclusive and we call for further empirical investigation. Second, the couplings between conflict and fishing subsystems are spatially asymmetric: conflict effects are diffuse in their links to broad changes in the fishery, whereas fishery effects may produce more localized conflict events. Third, and most relevant to conflict scholars, the drivers of fishing effort and catch may originate in different subsystems, but their changes and effects must be analyzed in concert. Fourth, the complex and path-dependent impacts of conflicts on natural resources in general, and fisheries in particular, highlights the urgent need for targeted surveys and more mechanistic understanding. Fifth, the open access nature of fisheries in Lake Victoria may exacerbate instabilities not present in other systems. Sixth, the diffuse and context-specific effects of conflicts on fisheries means models of fisheries management (e.g., stock assessment) should not incorporate conflict as a driver at this time. Finally, countries and their stakeholders should focus on diversification in employment for short term coping mechanisms during conflict as a means of shortcircuiting the conflict-fisheries feedback loop.