Analyzing statistical age models to determine the equivalent dose and burial age using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method
Analyzing statistical age models to determine the equivalent dose and burial age using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method
复制标题
使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法分析统计年龄模型以确定等效剂量和埋藏年龄
DOI：
10.1515/geochr-2015-0114
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
Peng Jun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peng Jun
在光释光（OSL）测年中，等效剂量（De）分布的统计年龄模型通常使用最大似然估计（MLE）方法进行估计。本研究采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）方法分析了统计年龄模型，包括中心年龄模型（CAM）、最小年龄模型（MAM）、最大年龄模型（MXAM）该方法首先用于从单个沉积物样品中使用De分布获得年龄模型中感兴趣的参数的采样分布，随后扩展到同时提取年龄估计有地层限制的多个样本。MCMC方法允许使用贝叶斯推断来细化来自多个样本的时间序列，包括完全和部分漂白的OSL日期。本研究设计了易于实现的开源数值程序来执行MCMC采样。测量和模拟De分布被用来验证通过这种方法获得的剂量（年龄）估计的可靠性。本研究的结果表明，MCMC方法获得的估计值可用于信息比较MLE方法获得的结果。应用MCMC方法对多个具有地层阶次的光释光测年数据建立统计年龄模型，可以显著提高埋藏年龄的精度和准确性。
In optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, statistical age models for equivalent dose (De) distributions are routinely estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method. In this study, a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method was used to analyze statistical age models, including the central age model (CAM), the minimum age model (MAM), the maximum age model (MXAM), etc. This method was first used to obtain sampling distributions on parameters of interest in an age model using De distributions from individual sedimentary samples and subsequently extended to simultaneously extract age estimates from multiple samples with stratigraphic constraints. The MCMC method allows for the use of Bayesian inference to refine chronological sequences from multiple samples, including both fully and partially bleached OSL dates. This study designed easily implemented open-source numeric programs to perform MCMC sampling. Measured and simulated De distributions are used to validate the reliability of dose (age) estimates obtained by this method. Findings from this study demonstrate that estimates obtained by the MCMC method can be used to informatively compare results obtained by the MLE method. The application of statistical age models to multiple OSL dates with stratigraphic orders using the MCMC method may significantly improve both the precision and accuracy of burial ages.