When your top choice turns you down: Effect of rejected offers on the utility of selection tests.
When your top choice turns you down: Effect of rejected offers on the utility of selection tests.
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当您的首选拒绝您时：被拒绝的报价对选择测试效用的影响。
DOI：
10.1037/0033-2909.99.1.133
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发表时间：
1986
影响因子：
22.4
通讯作者：
K. Murphy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Murphy
与使用有效的选择测试相关的边际效用或生产率增益的估计通常基于最初提供工作、职位或待遇的人的平均能力，这可以从选择比率中估计出来。由于有些录用通知被拒绝，而且必须接受得分较低的候选人，以取代拒绝最初录用通知的得分较高的候选人，因此实际被选中的候选人的平均能力几乎总是低于收到最初录用通知的候选人的平均能力。因此，与测试相关的效用的实际增加通常会低于所有提议都被接受的情况。当初始报价接受比例低于100%时，开发了计算实际入选者平均能力的公式。考虑了三种情况：（a）录取通知书被随机拒绝的情况，（B）录取通知书被得分最高的申请人拒绝的情况，以及（c）考试成绩与接受录取通知书的概率有关的情况。结果表明，在现实情况下，目前使用的效用公式可以高估效用收益30%-80%，在极端情况下，高估可能会更糟。此外，这种高估发生，即使测试只用于筛选，而不是排名排序的候选人。
Estimates of the marginal utility, or productivity gains, associated with the use of valid selection tests are typically based on the average ability of those to whom jobs, positions, or treatments are initially offered, which can be estimated from the selection ratio. Because some offers are declined, and lower scoring candidates must be accepted in the place of higher scoring candidates who decline initial offers, the average ability of those actually selected will almost always be lower than the average ability of those who received the initial offers. As a consequence, the actual increase in utility associated with testing will generally be lower than it would be if all offers were accepted. Formulas are developed for calculating the average ability of those actually selected when the proportion of initial offers accepted is less than 100%. Three cases are considered:(a) those in which offers are declined at random,(b) those in which offers are declined by the highest scoring applicants, and (c) those in which test scores are related to the probability of accepting an offer. It is shown that under realistic circumstances, utility formulas currently used could overestimate utility gains by 30%–80%, and that under extreme circumstances, overestimation could be much worse. Further, such overestimation occurs even when tests are used only for screening rather than for rank-ordering candidates.