A demonstration of the importance of temporal considerations in the prediction of newcomer turnover
A demonstration of the importance of temporal considerations in the prediction of newcomer turnover
复制标题
证明时间因素在预测新员工流失率中的重要性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. W. Lee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Brooks Holtom;Simon T. Tidd;T. Mitchell;T. W. Lee
我们的理论和实证研究的增加，在就业的前三年的自愿离职的前因的预测强度，使用生存分析随时间变化的协变量和期间的影响。基于从240名零售银行新员工中收集的员工调查数据和多年来收集的组织离职记录，我们发现，随着任期的增加，工作嵌入和工作满意度提高了他们预测自愿离职的能力。这项研究的结果强调了将时间融入理论的重要性，以更好地理解流动过程的动态。具体来说，关于不同影响何时可能显现以及它们将持续多久的额外理论是至关重要的。同样重要的是适合于动态建模的研究方法的开发和应用，例如这里介绍的那些。
We theorize about and examine empirically the increase in predictive strength of antecedents of voluntary turnover over the first three years of employment using survival analysis with time-varying covariates and period effects. On the basis of employee survey data gathered from 240 newcomers working in a retail bank and organizational turnover records collected over multiple years, we find that job embeddedness and job satisfaction increase in their ability to predict voluntary turnover as tenure increases. The results of this study emphasize the importance of integrating time into theories to better understand the dynamics of the turnover process. Specifically, additional theorizing about when different effects may be manifest and how long they will persist is critical. Equally important is the development and application of research methods that are suited to dynamic modeling, such as those introduced here.