Improving macro-economic forecasts - The role of consumer confidence
Improving macro-economic forecasts - The role of consumer confidence
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DOI：
10.1016/s0169-2070(97)00052-6
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发表时间：
1998-03-01
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Dua, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Batchelor, R;Dua, P
经济预测者未能预测到最近的美国经济衰退，这重新引起了人们的兴趣，即用来自其他更定性的指标的信息来补充基于模型的预测。本文测试是否有这样一个变量，消费者信心指数，可以改善这些预测，以及是否改善是最大的预测所产生的计量经济模型，很少有判断调整。我们发现，消费者信心将有助于预测1991年的经济衰退。但这一结果并不能推广到其他年份，似乎反映了经济衰退的特殊性质，而不是预测技术的持续弱点。(C)1998年Elsevier Science B.V.
The failure of economic forecasters to predict the most recent US recession has renewed interest in the idea of supplementing model-based forecasts with information from other, more qualitative, indicators. This paper tests whether one such variable, the consumer confidence index, could have improved these forecasts; and whether improvements are greatest for forecasts generated by econometric models with little judgmental adjustment. We find that consumer confidence would have been helpful in predicting the 1991 recession. But the result does not generalize to other years, and appears to reflect the special nature of the recession rather than a persistent weakness in forecasting technique. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.