Why do models fail to assess properly the sustainability of duiker (Cephalophus spp.) hunting in Central Africa?
Why do models fail to assess properly the sustainability of duiker (Cephalophus spp.) hunting in Central Africa?
复制标题
为什么模型无法正确评估中部非洲小羚羊（Cephalophus spp.）狩猎的可持续性？
DOI：
10.1017/s0030605308000288
复制
发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
R. Nasi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Vliet;R. Nasi
中非的野生动物狩猎在很大程度上被认为是不可持续的。几项研究表明，大多数哺乳动物物种应该已经从许多中非森林中消失，但市场继续供应肉类，没有迹象表明最常见的物种大规模灭绝。大部分关于小羚羊（Cephalophus spp.）在非洲中部的狩猎是基于相同的狩猎指数。我们说明了不确定性是如何积累在这些可持续性的估计。我们发现，在不同的网站上获得的结果是不可比的，因为各种方法已被用来计算模型的参数，每个方法有不同的误差来源。对于评估小羚羊的最大可持续收获量，所审查的研究主要在为假设调整因子选择的值以及用于计算最大种群增长率和估计小羚羊种群密度的方法方面有所不同。对于年度狩猎量的评估，研究的不同之处主要在于进行研究的规模（村庄或区域）以及取样和外推方法。在没有评估最大可持续收获量和年产量估计方法的准确性和标准化的情况下，应极其谨慎地对待基于生物指标的收获结论。
Abstract Hunting of wildlife in Central Africa is largely considered to be unsustainable. Several studies indicate that most mammal species should already have disappeared from many Central African forests but markets continue to be supplied with bushmeat, with no sign of large scale extinction of the most common species. Most studies of the sustainability of duiker (Cephalophus spp.) hunting in Central Africa are based on the same index of hunting. We illustrate how uncertainty is accumulated in these estimations of sustainability. We show that the results obtained in different sites are not comparable because a variety of methods have been used to calculate the parameters of the model and each of the methods has different sources of error. For the assessment of maximum sustainable harvest for duikers, the studies reviewed differ mainly in the value chosen for the hypothetical adjustment factor, and the method used to calculate the rate of maximum population increase and to estimate duiker population densities. For the assessment of annual hunting offtake the studies differ mainly in the scale at which they were conducted (village or regional), and sampling and extrapolation methods. Without evaluation of accuracy and standardization of methods for the estimation of maximum sustainable harvest and annual offtake, conclusions regarding harvesting based on biological indices should be treated with extreme caution.