Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity
Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity
复制标题
使用没有通量校正的 MIROC5 耦合大气-海洋 GCM 的摄动物理系综：实验设计和结果 气候敏感性的参数不确定性
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shiogama;H.;Watanabe;M.,Yoshimori;M.;Yokohata;T.;Ogura;T.;Annan;J.D.,Hargreaves;J.C.;Abe;M. Kamae;Y.;O'ishi;R.;Emori;S.;Nozawa;T.;Abe-Ouchi;A.;Kimoto;M.
在这项研究中，我们为MIROC5耦合大气-海洋环流模式(CGCM)构造了一个扰动物理集合(PPE)，以研究气候敏感性(CS)的参数不确定性。以往对PPEs的研究主要采用大气-板条海洋模式。一些使用CGCM的PPE研究应用了通量校正，因为参数的扰动可能导致大气顶部的巨大辐射不平衡和气候漂移。我们开发了一种在PPE实验中使用MIROC5 CGCM而不进行通量校正的方法来防止气候漂移。我们同时扫描了大气和地面方案中的10个参数。CS的范围(从我们的35个合奏成员估计)不是很宽(2.2-3.2°C)。与中层云反照率变化相关的短波云反馈主导了总反馈的变化。我们发现了目前中层云反照率、降水量和ENSO幅度三个气候模拟的性能指标，它们系统地与PPE中短波云反馈的变化有关。
In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2–3.2 °C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.