The importance of predator–prey overlap: predicting North Sea cod recovery with a multispecies assessment model
The importance of predator–prey overlap: predicting North Sea cod recovery with a multispecies assessment model
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捕食者与被捕食者重叠的重要性：利用多物种评估模型预测北海鳕鱼的恢复情况
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发表时间：
2010
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通讯作者：
A. Temming
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作者：
A. Kempf;G. Dingsør;G. Huse;M. Vinther;J. Floeter;A. Temming
Kempf，A.，Dingsor，G.，Huse，G.，Vinther，M.，Floeter，J.和Temming，A.2010。捕食者-猎物重叠的重要性：用多物种评估模型预测北海鳕鱼的恢复。-ICES海洋科学杂志，67：1989-1997。捕食者和猎物之间的重叠被认为是鱼类多物种评估模型中的一个敏感参数，其参数化是出了名的困难。重叠指数是从拖网调查中得出的，并用于北海随机多物种模型的参数化。研究了时间不变以及特定年份和季度的重叠估计对历史(1991-2007年)和预测的营养相互作用以及捕食者和猎物种群发展的影响。重点放在单一物种和多物种预测之间的一般比较，以及北海鳕鱼预测开发对这两类重叠实施的敏感性。鳕鱼和捕食者之间的时空重叠随着温度的升高而增加，这表明在暖期，食物网过程可能会降低鳕鱼的恢复潜力。多物种情景受到对未来空间重叠的假设的高度影响，但他们预测的恢复潜力比单一物种预测要低得多。此外，北海鳕鱼的恢复对其猎物种群产生了强烈的负面影响。文中还讨论了这些发现对管理层的影响。
Kempf, A., Dingsor, G. E., Huse, G., Vinther, M., Floeter, J., and Temming, A. 2010. The importance of predator–prey overlap: predicting North Sea cod recovery with a multispecies assessment model. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 1989–1997.The overlap between predator and prey is known as a sensitive parameter in multispecies assessment models for fish, and its parameterization is notoriously difficult. Overlap indices were derived from trawl surveys and used to parametrize the North Sea stochastic multispecies model. The effect of time-invariant and year- and quarter-specific overlap estimates on the historical (1991–2007) and predicted trophic interactions, as well as the development of predator and prey stocks, was investigated. The focus was set on a general comparison between single-species and multispecies forecasts and the sensitivity of the predicted development of North Sea cod for the two types of overlap implementation. The spatial–temporal overlap between cod and its predators increased with increasing temperature, indicating that foodweb processes might reduce the recovery potential of cod during warm periods. Multispecies scenarios were highly influenced by assumptions on future spatial overlap, but they predicted a considerably lower recovery potential than single-species predictions did. In addition, a recovery of North Sea cod had strong negative effects on its prey stocks. The consequences of these findings for management are discussed.