Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasting for our Changing World
Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasting for our Changing World
复制标题
为不断变化的世界推进天气和气候预测
DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-21-0262.1
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Flatter, Georgina Campbell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Brunet, Gilbert;Parsons, David B.;Ivanov, Dimitar;Lee, Boram;Bauer, Peter;Bernier, Natacha B.;Bouchet, Veronique;Brown, Andy;Busalacchi, Antonio;Flatter, Georgina Campbell
我们的世界正在迅速变化。社会正面临着高影响和极端天气和气候事件的频率和强度的增加。这些极端情况加上人口指数增长和人口结构变化（例如城市化、沿海人口增加）正在加剧危险天气和气候事件对社会和经济的有害影响。城市化和不断变化的全球经济也增加了对气候变化进行准确预测的需求，并改进了对公里尺度的破坏性和潜在有益天气事件的预测。技术创新还导致私营部门在天气和气候事业中的作用不断发展和增强。本文讨论了加快天气和气候预报进步所面临的挑战，并提出了私营、公共和学术部门所需采取的关键行动的愿景。行动涵盖（i）利用新的观测和计算生态系统； (ii) 推进地球系统模型的战略； (iii) 如何从人工智能日益增长的作用中受益； (iv) 在互联网和社交媒体时代改善预报信息交流和决策支持的做法； (v) 满足减少天气和气候对所有国家，特别是低收入国家相对较大的有害影响的需要。这些行动将基于公共、私营和学术部门之间改善合作的模式。本文是对世界气象组织开放协商平台发布的《天气和气候预报的未来（2021）》白皮书的简要总结。
Our world is rapidly changing. Societies are facing an increase in the frequency and intensity of high-impact and extreme weather and climate events. These extremes together with exponential population growth and demographic shifts (e.g., urbanization, increase in coastal populations) are increasing the detrimental societal and economic impact of hazardous weather and climate events. Urbanization and our changing global economy have also increased the need for accurate projections of climate change and improved predictions of disruptive and potentially beneficial weather events on kilometer scales. Technological innovations are also leading to an evolving and growing role of the private sector in the weather and climate enterprise. This article discusses the challenges faced in accelerating advances in weather and climate forecasting and proposes a vision for key actions needed across the private, public, and academic sectors. Actions span (i) utilizing the new observational and computing ecosystems; (ii) strategies to advance Earth system models; (iii) ways to benefit from the growing role of artificial intelligence; (iv) practices to improve the communication of forecast information and decision support in our age of internet and social media; and (v) addressing the need to reduce the relatively large, detrimental impacts of weather and climate on all nations and especially on low-income nations. These actions will be based on a model of improved cooperation between the public, private, and academic sectors. This article represents a concise summary of the white paper on the Future of Weather and Climate Forecasting (2021) put together by the World Meteorological Organizations’ Open Consultative Platform.