Evaluating consumer investments in distributed energy technologies

Evaluating consumer investments in distributed energy technologies
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评估消费者对分布式能源技术的投资

DOI:
10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112008
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发表时间:
2021
期刊:
影响因子:
9
通讯作者:
Castagneto Gissey G
Castagneto Gissey G
中科院分区:
经济学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Castagneto Gissey G

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最终用户采用太阳能光伏和电能存储取决于其经济吸引力,这通常是通过净现值(NPV)等未来现金流指标进行评估的。然而,使用净现值的分析通常不考虑短期和长期向低碳电力系统的演变。我们表明,这是至关重要的准确计算这些technology.By能源系统模型与电力系统模型相联系的盈利能力,我们观察到的净现值估计计算与不代表电力系统的潜在演变之间的重大差异。我们的研究结果表明,不考虑电力系统的短期和长期变化可能会低估光伏和储能投资的净现值约20%,特别是在可再生能源水平高、灵活性中等和能源系统电气化程度高的情况下。使用依赖于系统的现金流指标可以对最终用户的能源技术盈利能力产生重大影响。
The adoption of solar photovoltaic and electrical energy storage by end users depends on their economic attractiveness, which is typically assessed with metrics of future cash flow such as Net Present Value (NPV). Yet analyses using NPV typically do not account for the evolution towards low-carbon electricity systems in the short and long term. We show this to be of critical importance for accurately calculating the profitability of these technologies.By linking an energy system model with a power system model, we observe substantial differences between NPV estimates calculated with and without representing potential evolutions of the electricity system. Our results suggest that not accounting for short- and long-run changes in the electricity system could underestimate the NPV of an investment in photovoltaic and storage by around 20%, especially in scenarios with high levels of renewables, moderate flexibility, and high electrification in the energy system. Using system-dependent cash flow metrics can have a major impact on end-users' energy technology profitability.
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